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Friday, October 29, 2010

S&P 500 Rally at Resistance (Charts) *Weekly gain just +0.18, +0.02%*

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S&P 500 up only +0.20 for the week, Bears may want a recount!
Bulls up 4 consecutive weeks, 8 of last 9


S&P 500 Overview

S&P 500 The S&P 500 posted a scant gain this week, closing up a mere +0.18 and +0.20% for the week at 1183.26 on Friday, October 29, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +42.06 and +3.69% for October, is up +6.11% for the year, and is up +74.90% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -34.02 and -2.79% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The SPX is now well above the summer trading range that began on May 18 and was negated on September 17. The S&P 500 has now has closed above the 200 day moving average since Monday, September 13, for 35 consecutive trading days.

Another Death Cross Reversal The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - but regained the 100d sma on Wednesday, September 22. Therefore, this Death Cross has been negated. The 50d sma descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross - but regained the 200d sma on Friday, October 22. Therefore this Death Cross has been negated. The 100d sma descended below the 200d sma on August 24 signalling yet another Death Cross which is still in effect. Although lagging indicators, the remaining Death Cross, the 100d below the 200d, shows the price weakness of the SPX in the pullback after the April 23 YTD peak.

Volatility The VIX closed Friday, October 29 at 21.20, bouncing up from  the October lows, and regaining the 25 day simple moving average this week for the first time since since October 4. The VIX continues below the 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. VIX is up +12.89% for the week, down -10.55% for October (more than the SPX is up), down -2.21% for the year (more than the SPX is up), and down -57.33% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. The VIX is down -53.70% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. This is about when the SPX sideways, range-bound trading began for the summer. The VIX put in a triple bottom in mid-April with the 2010 YTD closing low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20.

The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways? The S&P 500 rallied in September, finally rallied above the summer  trading range, and the rally continued into October. However, the recent weekly gains of the SPX, reverse chronological order, have been +0.02%, +0.59%, +0.95%, and +1.65%. The last 4 weeks gains have been small and consistently decreasing each week, as if the rally was grinding to a halt! Economic data continues mixed, but there is no confirmation the USA economy has stalled, just growing at a very, very slow rate that is not sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate significantly. Earnings reports have been good to provide some upward market momentum, but earnings season is almost over. The equities markets may well continue "melting up", i.e.. very slowly, barring serious negative economic data, as earnings season ends. Therefore, there is an upside bias through earnings season and most likely a neutral to downside bias afterwards. Earnings, and economic news, have yet to drive the SPX up to test the YTD high of 1217.28. The economic recovery in the USA and world has slowed, but has not stalled.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls.


S&P 500 Rally at Resistance: weekly gain just +0.18, +.02%

S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart for just October 2010 to illustrate current resistance and support. Last week's daily chart was longer-term and illustrated where the continuing resistance and support originated. Current resistance and support is from April and May. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: 1183.26
2010 YTD High, April 23: 1217.28
2010 YTD Low, July 2: 1022.58
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10

* The 100 and 200 day simple moving averages and the uptrend line are not shown on the daily chart this week *


Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bull market for the SPX on Monday, September 27. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is now bullish, both sma's are ascending, and has caught up with the September (+8.8%) and October (+3.7%) rally.

Resistance Because the SPX is below the YTD highs, there are multiple levels of resistance above. This week SPX did not continue breakouts above current resistance as in prior weeks. Current resistance above continues in the 1180s, the closing dip of 1183.71 on April 27 (middle yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above), then the April 30 dip of 1186.69,  and next the April 6 sub-peak close of 1189.44 (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above).

The April 6 resistance of 1189.44, the highest yellow horizontal line, was pinned on October 21 with the SPX intraday high of 1189.43, pinned through on October 25, and pinned again on October 28. All 3 attempts failed and SPX closed below. The April 27 resistance of 1183.71, the middle yellow horizontal line, has been closed above recently, but SPX pulled back below on October 29. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the lofty 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28..

Support Because the SPX is above the YTD lows, there are multiple levels of support below. Nearest key support is the April 7 dip of 1182.45, the March 23 peak of 1174.17, and the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (lowest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). This May 12 support of 1171.67 was tested on October 27 with an intraday low of 1171.70 and on Octber 21 with an intraday low of 1171.17. Next support is the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 19, 2010. The top of the summer trading range is now distant support and a milestone: the intraday price of 1131.23 on June 21 and the closing price of 1127.79 on August 9.

Moving Averages The 25d sma continues ascending and is above the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is ascending, regained the 100d on September 22, and regained the 200d sma on October 22. This negated two Death Crosses. The 100d sma is now ascending just above and along the uptrend line (not shown on chart), but continues below the 200d sma. The 200d sma remains above the 100d sma and has begun slightly ascending (not shown on chart). The three Death Crosses and two reversals are discussed at the beginning of this post.

Uptrend Line (not shown on chart) The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX began testing this uptrend line on August 24, rallied above on September 1, and now has remained above for 42 consecutive trading days.

Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a long-term trendline from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX rallied above this trendline on October 5 and has remained above for 19 consecutive trading days, the first time since setting the YTD high on April 23.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 62.53 is reasonable, descending, and pulled back from recent highs. The multi-year abysmal low was 10.40 on July 6. The 2010 peak was 99.30 on on March 17. The RSI 28 day = 62.29 is reasonable, slightly ascending, and below recent  highs. The 2010 low was 34.09 on May 25 at 34.09. The 2010 peak was 84.25 on April 5. Both RSIs are reasonable and virtually the same, reflecting the recent mostly sideways trading and small weekly gains.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = -1.37, is descending, been negative for 4 consecutive trading days, and reflects the recent mostly sideways trading and small weekly gains. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked at +8.43 on June 18, 2010 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 1106.66 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now above this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived, but then regained and lost the indicator several times, signalling uncertainty and lack of trend during the summer trading range. SPX regained the 10m ema in September and continues above in October indicating a bull market.

Conclusion The September Rally continued into October but is sputtering to a halt. The past 4 weeks of gains have decreased each week. The intermediate term trend is bullish and the long term trend is bullish. Perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above the top of the summer trading range of 1130, then above 1150, initial positive earnings reports pushed SPX onwards to just below 1170, ongoing earnings reports and economic data rallied SPX to above 1170, and then the past 2 week to the low 1180s. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart: Rally at Resistance

Below a very long-term view of the SPX on a monthly chart since July 1998. The chart includes all historical price interaction with the current SPX price. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal lines, uptrend line, and downtrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above, as applicable. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX of 1183.26 is currently above the 10m ema of 1106.66 which signals a long-term bull market.


Disclosure
We have no position in SPX, SPY, or any other related ETF.


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Sunday, October 24, 2010

S&P 500 Ekes Out A Weekly Gain (Charts) *Bulls rally 3 straight weeks, 7 of last 8* SPX SPY

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Bulls Rally 3 consecutive weeks, 7 of last 8!


S&P 500 Overview

S&P 500 The S&P 500 posted yet another gain this week, closing up +6.89 and +0.59% for the week at 1183.08 on Friday, October 22, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +41.88 and +3.67% for October, is up +6.10% for the year, and is up +74.87% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -34.20 and -2.81% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The SPX is now well above the summer trading range that began on May 18 and was negated on September 17. The S&P 500 has now has closed above the 200 day moving average since Monday, September 13, for 30 consecutive trading days.

Another Death Cross Reversal The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - but regained the 100d sma on Wednesday, September 22. Therefore, this Death Cross has been negated. The 50d sma descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross - but regained the 200d sma on Friday, October 22. Therefore this Death Cross has been negated. The 100d sma descended below the 200d sma on August 24 signalling yet another Death Cross which is still in effect. Although lagging indicators, the remaining Death Cross, the 100d below the 200d, shows the price weakness of the SPX in the pullback after the April 23 YTD peak.

Volatility The VIX closed Friday, October 22 at 18.78 and the VIX is the lowest since late April 2010. The VIX continues below the 25, 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. The VIX put in a triple bottom in mid-April with the 2010 YTD closing low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is down -1.31% for the week, is down -20.76% for October (more than the SPX is up), is down -13.38% for the year (more than the SPX is up), and down -62.20% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. The VIX is down -58.99% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. This is about when the SPX sideways, range-bound trading began for the summer.

The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways? The S&P 500 rallied in September, finally rallied above the summer  trading range, in October continues to rally, and is now well above this range. Although the last 3 weeks gains in the SPX have been small, they are nonetheless gains. Economic data conitnues mixed, but there is no confirmation the USA economy has stalled, just growing at a very slow rate. This is not stopping the rally, only slowing it down as well. Earnings reports have been just enough to keep the market momentum upwards. The equities markets may well continue "melting up", i.e.. very slowly, barring serious negative economic data, as earnings season ends. Therefore, there is an upside bias through earnings season and most likely a neutral to downside bias afterwards. Earnings, and economic news, have yet to drive the SPX up to test the YTD high of 1217.28. The economic recovery in the USA and world has slowed, but has not stalled.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls.


S&P 500 Ekes Out A Weekly Gain

S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart since early March 2010 to illustrate current resistance and support. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: 1183.08
2010 YTD High, April 23: 1217.28
2010 YTD Low, July 2: 1022.58
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10


Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bull market for the SPX on Monday, September 27. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is now bullish, both sma's are ascending, and has caught up with the September (+8.8%) and October (+3.7%) rally.

Resistance Because the SPX is below the YTD highs, there are multiple levels of resistance above. SPX continues breakouts above current resistance - the latest breakout was above the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (lowest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). Current resistance above is now in the 1180s, the closing dip of 1183.71 on April 27 (middle yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above), then the April 30 dip of 1186.69,  and next the April 6 sub-peak close of 1189.44 (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). The April 6 resistance was pinned on October 21 with the SPX intraday high of 1189.43. The April 27 resistance was pinned through on October 22 with the SPX intraday high of 1183.93. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the lofty 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28..

Support Because the SPX is above the YTD lows, there are multiple levels of support below. Nearest key support is the April 7 dip of 1182.45, the March 23 peak of 1174.17, and the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (lowest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). This was current resistance last week. Next support is the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 19, 2010. The top of the summer trading range is now distant support and a milestone: the intraday price of 1131.23 on June 21 and the closing price of 1127.79 on August 9.

Moving Averages SPX had plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages in August, but now has regained all. The 25d sma is now ascending steeply and has regained the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is now ascending, regained the 100d on September 22, and regained the 200d sma on October 22. This negated two Death Crosses. The 100d sma is now ascending just above and along the uptrend line (discussed below), but continues below the 200d sma. The 200d sma remains above the 100d sma and has begun slightly ascending. The Death Crosses and two reversals are discussed at the beginning of this post.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX began testing this uptrend line on August 24, rallied above on September 1, and now has remained above for 37 consecutive trading days.

Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a long-term trendline from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX rallied above this trendline on October 5 and has remained above for 14 consecutive trading days, the first time since setting the YTD high on April 23.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 73.48 is overbought. The multi-year abysmal low was 10.40 on July 6. The 2010 peak was 99.30 on on March 17. The RSI 28 day = 65.93 is reasonable. The 2010 low was 34.09 on May 25 at 34.09. The 2010 peak was 84.25 on April 5. Both RSIs have more upside potential.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = -0.36 and has been negative for 4 consecutive trading days. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked at +8.43 on June 18, 2010 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 1106.63 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now above this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived, but then regained and lost the indicator several times, signalling uncertainty and lack of trend during the summer trading range. SPX regained the 10m ema in September and continues above in October indicating a bull market.

Conclusion The September Rally has continued into October as uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery, and previously the Euro Crisis have not slowed down the bulls. The intermediate term trend is bullish and the long term trend is bullish. Perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above the top of the summer trading range of 1130, then above 1150, initial positive earnings reports pushed SPX onwards to just below 1170, ongoing earnings reports and economic data rallied SPX to above 1170, and this week to the low 1180s. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart: Rally Continues Into October

Below a very long-term view of the SPX on a monthly chart since July 1998. The chart includes all historical price interaction with the current SPX price. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal lines, uptrend line, and downtrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX of 1183.08 is currently above the 10m ema of 1106.63 which signals a long-term bull market.


Disclosure
We have no position in SPX, SPY, or any other related ETF.


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Saturday, October 16, 2010

S&P 500 Posts Another Weekly Gain (Charts) *Bulls rally 6 of last 7 weeks* SPX SPY

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Bulls Rally 6 of Last 7 Weeks!


S&P 500 Overview

S&P 500 The S&P 500 posted another gain this week, closing up +11.04 and +0.95% for the week at 1176.19 on Friday, October 15, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +34.99 and +3.07% for October, is up +5.48% for the year, and is up +73.86% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -41.09 and -3.38% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The SPX is now well above the summer trading range that began on May 18 and was negated on September 17. The S&P 500 has now has closed above the 200 day moving average since Monday, September 13, for 25 consecutive trading days.

Death Crosses and Reversal The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - but regained the 100d sma on Wednesday, September 22. Therefore, this Death Cross has been negated. The 50d sma descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross which is still in effect. The 100d sma descended below the 200d sma on August 24 signalling yet another Death Cross which is also still in effect. Although lagging indicators, the remaining two Death Crosses, the 50d below the 200d and the 100d below the 200d show the price weakness of the SPX since the April 23 YTD peak.

Volatility The VIX closed Friday, October 15 at 19.03 and the VIX is the lowest since late April 2010. The VIX continues below the 25, 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. The VIX put in a triple bottom in mid-April with the 2010 YTD closing low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is down -8.11% for the week, is down -19.70% for October (more than the SPX is up), is down -12.20% for the year (more than the SPX is up), and down -61.69% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. The VIX is down -58.44% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. This is about when the SPX sideways, range-bound trading began for the summer.

The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways? The S&P 500 rallied in September, finally rallied above the summer  trading range, and in October is now well above this range. Although the last 2 weeks gains in the SPX have been small, they are nonetheless gains. Economic data the past week was mixed, but the negative reports are not stopping the rally, only slowing it down. Earnings reports have been just enough to keep the market up. The equities markets may well continue "melting up", barring serious negative economic data, until at least the end of earnings season. Therefore, there is an upside bias through earnings season and most likely a downside bias afterwards. Earnings, and economic news, have yet to drive the SPX up to test the YTD high of 1217.28. The economic recovery in the USA and world has slowed, but has not stalled.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls.


S&P 500 Rally Resumes

S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart since early March 2010 to illustrate current resistance and support. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: 1176.19
2010 YTD High, April 23: 1217.28
2010 YTD Low, July 2: 1022.58
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10


Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bull market for the SPX on Monday, September 27. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is now bullish as both sma's are ascending,  and has caught up with the current rally.

Resistance Because the SPX is below the YTD highs, there are multiple levels of resistance above. SPX continues breakouts above current resistance - the latest breakout was above the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (middle yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). Current resistance above is now in the 1180s, the April 6 sub-peak close of 1189.44 (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above) and perhaps the closing dip of 1183.71 on April 27. Initial positive earnings reports and perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above 1150 and onwards to just below 1170, and now into the 1170s. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the lofty 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28..

Support Because the SPX is above the YTD lows, there are multiple levels of support below. Nearest key support is the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (middle yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). This was current resistance last week. Next support is the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 19, 2010 (lower yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). The top of the summer trading range is now distant support and a milestone: the intraday price of 1131.23 on June 21 and the closing price of 1127.79 on August 9. The 200 day simple moving average (1120.42) was regained on September 13, and is now support further below.

Moving Averages SPX had plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages in August, but now has regained all. The 25d sma is now ascending steeply and has regained the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is now ascending, regained the 100d on September 22, and should regain 200d sma soon which would negate a Death Cross. The 100d sma is now ascending just above and along the uptrend line (discussed below), but continues below the 25d, 50d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma remains above the 50d, and 100d sma's, has leveled off, and has begun slightly ascending. The Death Crosses and a reversal are discussed at the beginning of this post.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX began testing this uptrend line on August 24, rallied above on September 1, and now has remained above for 32 consecutive trading days.

Higher Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a long-term trendline from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX rallied above this trendline on October 5 and has remained above for 9 consecutive trading days, the first time since setting the YTD high on April 23.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 71.43 is marginally overbought and well above the July 6 YTD and multi-year abysmal low of 10.40. The peak was on September 20 at 88.58 which was the highest since the 2010 YTD March 17 peak of 99.30. The RSI 28 day = 73.31 is overbought and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09. The YTD peak was 84.25 on April 5. Both RSIs have some more upside potential.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +0.98, bottomed on October 4 at +0.01, and continues above 0.00, moving sideways, which reveals the slow, grinding upwards movement of the SPX. MACD switched to bullish on September 2. MACD peaked at 6.51 on September 14 and 15. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked at +8.43 on June 18, 2010 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 1112.29 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now above this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived, but then regained and lost the indicator several times, signalling uncertainty and lack of trend during the summer trading range. SPX regained the 10m ema in September and continues above in October indicating a bull market.

Conclusion The September Rally has continued into October as uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery, and previously the Euro Crisis have not slowed down the bulls. The intermediate term trend is bullish and the long term trend is bullish. Perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above the top of the summer trading range of 1130, then above 1150, initial positive earnings reports pushed SPX onwards to just below 1170, and now earnings report and economic data have rallied SPX above 1170. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Below a very long-term view of the SPX on a monthly chart since June 1998. The chart includes all historical price interaction with the current SPX price. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal lines downtrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX of 1176.19 is currently above the 10m ema of 1112.29 which signals a long-term bull market.



Disclosure
We have no position in SPX, SPY, or any other related ETF.


Related Articles and Links

Recent Posts by Financial Controls
Bank Failure Friday: FDIC Closes 3 Banks *2010 YTD Total Now 132*
Citigroup Reports Earnings Monday (Financial Charts & Review) *Estimated Revenues $21.23B, EPS $0.06* C
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Federal Reserve: Pace of Economic Recovery Likely to be Modest in Near Term (Review)
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Fed Chair Bernanke: Pace of Economic Recovery Has Slowed Somewhat (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Moderate Recovery, Outlook "Unusually Uncertain" (Review)
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Global All-Industry Output Index at 10-Month Low (Chart) "Global recovery lost further traction"
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USA Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Up +1.7% in September (Chart) "Continued growth at faster rate"
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Saturday, October 9, 2010

S&P 500 Rally Resumes (Charts) *Bulls continue upwards 5 of last 6 weeks*

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Bulls Rally 5 of Last 6 Weeks!


S&P 500 Overview

S&P 500 The S&P 500 rallied yet again this week, closing up +18.91 and +1.65% for the week at 1165.15 on Friday, October 8, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +23.95 and +2.10% for October, is up +4.49% for the year, and is up +72.22% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -52.13 and -4.28% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The SPX is now well above the summer trading range that began on May 18 and was negated on September 17. The S&P 500 has now has closed above the 200 day moving average since Monday, September 13, for 20 consecutive trading days.

Death Crosses and Reversal The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - but regained the 100d sma on Wednesday, September 22. Therefore, this Death Cross has been negated. The 50d sma descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross which is still in effect. The 100d sma descended below the 200d sma on August 24 signalling yet another Death Cross which is also still in effect. Although lagging indicators, the remaining two Death Crosses, the 50d below the 200d and the 100d below the 200d show the price weakness of the SPX since the April 23 YTD peak.

Volatility The VIX closed Friday, October 8 at 20.71, the lowest close since May 3 (20.19), and continues below the 25, 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. The VIX put in a triple bottom in mid-April with the 2010 YTD closing low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is down -8.00% for the week, is down -12.62% for October (more than the SPX is up), is down -4.47% for the year (inversely comparable to SPX), and down -58.31% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. The VIX is down -54.77% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. This is about when the SPX sideways, range-bound trading began for the summer.

The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways? The S&P 500 rallied in September, finally rallied above the summer  trading range, and is now well above this range. Alcoa kicked off earnings season with decent results and forecasting higher global aluminum demand. Intel and AMD launch the technology, semiconductor earnings season on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Economic data the past week was mixed, but the negative reports didn't seem to affect the equities markets significantly. With hopefully positive earnings reports coming this month, the bias is now upside driven by earnings. The equities markets may well continue "melting up", barring serious negative economic data. The economic recovery in the USA and world has slowed, but has not stalled.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls.


S&P 500 Rally Resumes

S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart since late January 2010 to illustrate current resistance and support. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: 1165.15
2010 YTD High, April 23: 1217.28
2010 YTD Low, July 2: 1022.58
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10


Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bull market for the SPX on Monday, September 27. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is now bullish as both sma's are ascending,  and has caught up the current rally.

Resistance Because the SPX is below the YTD highs, there are multiple levels of resistance above. SPX continues breakouts above current resistance - the latest breakout was above the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 19, 2010 (middle yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). Current resistance above is the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12 (highest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). Initial positive earnings reports and perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above 1150 and onwards to just below 1170. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28..

Support Because the SPX is above the YTD lows, there are multiple levels of support below. Nearest key support is the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 19, 2010 (middle yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). The top of the summer trading range is now support and a milestone: the intraday price of 1131.23 on June 21 and the closing price of 1127.79 on August 9 (lowest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). The 200 day simple moving average (1119.24) was regained on September 13, and is now support further below.

Moving Averages SPX had plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages in August, but now has regained all. The 25d sma is now ascending steeply, regained the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma is now ascending, regained the 100d on September 22, and should regain 200d sma soon. The 100d sma has leveled off, is now slightly ascending, but continues below the 25d, 50d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma remains above the 50d, and 100d sma's, has leveled off, and has begun slightly ascending. The Death Crosses and a reversal are discussed at the beginning of this post.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX began testing this uptrend line on August 24, rallied above on September 1, and now has remained above for 27 consecutive trading days.

Higher Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a long-term trendline from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX rallied above this trendline on October 5 and has remained above for 4 consecutive trading days, the first time since setting the YTD high on April 23.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 60.39 is reasonable and well above the July 6 YTD and multi-year abysmal low of 10.40. The peak was on September 20 at 88.58 which was the highest since the 2010 YTD March 17 peak of 99.30. The RSI 28 day = 75.31 is overbought and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09. The YTD peak was 84.25 on April 5. The RSI 28-day is not at an extreme but is getting a little toppy.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +1.07, bottomed on October 4 at +0.01, and is now remaining above +0.00. MACD switched to bullish on September 2. MACD peaked at 6.51 on September 14 and 15 and has been downtrending. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked at +8.43 on June 18, 2010 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 1111.19 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now above this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived, but then regained and lost the indicator several times, signalling uncertainty and lack of trend during the summer trading range. SPX regained the 10m ema in September and continues above in October indicating a bull market.

Conclusion The September Rally has continued into October as uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery, and previously the Euro Crisis have not slowed down the bulls. The intermediate term trend is bullish and the long term trend is bullish. Perceived net positive economic data pushed SPX above the top of the summer trading range of 1130, then above 1150, and initial positive earnings reports pushed SPX onwards to just below 1170. Ultimately the highest peak, and resistance, is the the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Below a very long-term view of the SPX on a monthly chart since March 1998. The chart includes all historical price interaction with the current SPX price. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow horizontal lines downtrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX of 1165.15 is currently above the 10m ema of 1111.19 which signals a long-term bull market.



Related Articles and Links
Recent Posts by Financial Controls
Bank Failure Friday: No FDIC Closures! *2010 YTD total remains 129*
Federal Reserve: Pace of Economic Recovery Likely to be Modest in Near Term (Review)
Fed Beige Book: USA Economic Growth at Modest Pace (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Pace of Economic Recovery Has Slowed Somewhat (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Moderate Recovery, Outlook "Unusually Uncertain" (Review)
FOMC Lowers USA 2010 GDP Projection (Review)
Recent Posts by Boom Doom Economy
USA Economic Weekly Leading Index at 19-Week High (Charts) Is the USA to encounter "cyclical instability"?
USA Unemployment Rate Continues at 9.6% in September (Charts) *95,000 jobs lost*
USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 12-Week Low (Charts) *Total Claims 445,000*
Global Manufacturing PMI at 14-Month Low (Chart) "Production is likely to stop growing or even contract"
USA Manufacturing PMI Contracts in September -1.9% (Chart) *10 month low, growing at slower rate*
USA Q2 GDP Revised Slightly Upwards to +1.7% (Chart)Other Links
USA Monthly Consumer Confidence Index at 7 Month Low (Chart)
Global All-Industry Output Index Dips to 6 Month Low (Chart)
Global Services PMI at 6 Month Low (Chart) *Growing at Slower Rate in August*
USA Consumer Sentiment Drops to 13 Month Low (Chart)
USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August (Chart)


Disclosure
We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.


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Friday, October 1, 2010

S&P 500 in Narrow Trading Range (Charts) *Waiting for Earnings Season*

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Bears Stop Rally This Week: S&P 500 Flat, Down -0.21%


S&P 500 Overview

S&P 500 The S&P 500 was flat for  the week, closing down -2.43 and -0.21% for the week at 1146.24 on Friday, October 1, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, was up +91.87 and +8.76% for September, is up +2.79% for the year, and is up +69.43% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -71.04 and -5.84% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. The SPX continues above the summer trading range that began on May 18 and was negated on September 17. The S&P 500 has now has closed above the 200 day moving average since Monday, September 13 - for 15 consecutive trading days.

Death Crosses and Reversal The 50 day simple moving average descended below the 100 day sma on June 23 - a Death Cross - but regained the 100d sma on Wednesday, September 22. Therefore, this Death Cross has been negated. The 50d sma descended below the 200 day sma on July 2 - another Death Cross which is still in effect. The 100d sma descended below the 200d sma on August 24 signalling yet another Death Cross which is also still in effect. Although lagging indicators, the remaining two Death Crosses, the 50d below the 200d and the 100d below the 200d show the price weakness of the SPX since the April 23 YTD peak.

Volatility The VIX closed Friday, October 1 at 22.50, near the recent lows and below the 25, 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. The VIX put in a triple bottom in mid-April with the 2010 YTD closing low of 15.58 on April 12. The VIX topped out at a YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. VIX is up +3.68% for the week, was down -2.35 and -9.0% for September (inversely comparable to the SPX), is up a +3.83% for the year, and down -54.69% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. The VIX is down -50.84% from the 2010 YTD closing high of 45.79 on May 20. This is about when the SPX sideways, range-bound trading began for the summer.

The Big Question What happens now? Up, Down, Sideways? The S&P 500 rallied in September, finally rallied above the summer  trading range, and is now above this range. However, an equilibrium seems to have been reached this week with no strongly positive economic data and the imminent beginning of earnings season. With hopefully positive earnings reports coming this month, the bias is now upside driven by earnings. The equities markets may well continue "melting up", barring serious negative economic data. The economic recovery in the USA and world has slowed, but has not stalled. A look at the trading range is below in the SPX daily chart commentary.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy.


S&P 500 in Narrow Trading Range

S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart since late December 2009 to illustrate the summer trading range, the current narrow trading range, and current resistance. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: 1146.24
2010 YTD High, April 23: 1217.28
2010 YTD Low, July 2: 1022.58
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10

Trading Ranges
Current Trading Range
Resistance: January 19, 2010 close 1050.23 (highest yellow horizontal line on daily chart below)
First Support: June 21, 2010 intraday high 1131.23 (second highest horizontal line on daily chart below)
Second Support: August 9, 2010 close 1127.79 (third highest horizontal line on daily chart below)
The S&P 500 is currently in a narrow trading range and has not been able to breakout above the January 2010 peak prior to earnings season. This 1050 area is current resistance. The top of the summer trading range,  previously resistance, has now become support for the current trading range. This 1127-1131 area is current support.
Prior Trading Range
The S&P broke down to begin a summer trading range on May 18. The highest closing price subsequently had been (until this past  week) 1127.79 on August 9 (the third highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart below) and the highest intraday price had been 1131.23 on June 21 (the second highest yellow horizontal  line on the daily chart below). The SPX rose above September 20 and has remained above now since September 24 - six consecutive trading days. The lowest closing price subsequently has been 1022.58 on July 2 (the lowest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart below) and the lowest intraday price since has been 1010.91 on July 1. With this decisive move upwards on September 24, it appears the top of the trading range (1127-1131) is now support and the trading range has been negated.


Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, signaled a bull market for the SPX on Monday, September 27. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is mostly bullish as both sma's are ascending,  and is just catching up with the September Rally.

Resistance Because the SPX is below the YTD highs, there are multiple levels of resistance above. SPX has not been able to breakout above current resistance - the peak closing of 1150.23 on January 9, 2010 (highest yellow horizontal line on daily chart above). This resistance was pinned through on Thursday and Friday, September 30 and October 1, but SPX closed below on both days. Next resistance above is the sub-peak closing of 1171.67 on May 12. It will require both positive earnings reports and positive economic data to push SPX above 1150, onwards to 1170, and ultimately to the 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28..

Support Because the SPX is above the YTD lows, there are multiple levels of support below. The top of the summer trading range is now support and a milestone: the intraday price of 1131.23 on June 21 (second highest yellow horizontal  line on the daily chart above).and the closing price of 1127.79 on August 9 (third highest horizontal line on daily chart below). The rally continues if SPX holds above these two prices, of course. The 200 day simple moving average (1118.03) was regained on September 13, and is now support further below.

Moving Averages SPX had plunged through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d simple moving averages in August, but now has regained all. The 25d sma is now ascending steeply, regained the 50d and 100d sma's, and should regain the 200d sma soon. The 50d sma is now ascending, regained the 100d on September 22, and should regain 200d sma. The 100d sma is beginning to level off but continues below the 25d, 50d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma remains above the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's, has leveled off, and has begun slightly ascending. The Death Crosses and a reversal are discussed at the beginning of this post.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the current 2010 YTD closing low of 1022.53 set on July 2. SPX began testing this uptrend line on August 24, rallied above on September 1, and now has remained above for 22 consecutive trading days.

Higher Downtrend Line The (much) higher yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a long-term trendline from the October 9, 2007 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down through the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. SPX continues below this downtrend line since setting the YTD high on April 23, but did pin upwards though on Thursday, September 30 for the first time..

Lower Downtrend Line The lower yellow downtrend line, a measure of the rate of price descent, is a short-term trendline from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28 down through the recent August 9 closing high of 1127.79. The 100d sma has also trended downwards recently in August and September along this trendline. SPX rallied above this trendline on September 9 and now has stayed above for 17 consecutive trading days. This trendline has been negated but is left on the chart temporarily for comparative purposes.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 63.75 is reasonable and well above the July 6 YTD and multi-year abysmal low of 10.40. The peak was on September 20 at 88.58 which was the highest since the 2010 YTD March 17 peak of 99.30. The RSI 28 day = 65.97 is reasonable and above the May 25 YTD low of 34.09. The YTD peak was 84.25 on April 5. Both the RSI 14-day and 28-day now have upside room due to the recent consolidation trading.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +1.03  and switched to bullish on September 2, after being bearish since August 11. MACD peaked at 6.51 on September 14 and 15 and has been downtrending. MACD had previously been uptrending since August 26. MACD had plunged to -11.44 on May 7, the lowest reading since the October 2008 panic. MACD peaked at +8.43 on June 18, 2010 at the highest since the rally off the bottom in March 2009.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 1099.93 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. SPX is now above this signal. SPX initially dropped below this signal in late May, indicating long-term bear market had arrived, but has regained and lost the indicator several times which indicates uncertainty and lack of trend during the summer trading range.

Conclusion Uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery, and previously the Euro Crisis had caused the markets to break the bull market trend that began in March 2009 and peaked in April 2010. The current mixed economic news has just been positive enough to take the SPX just above the top of the summer trading range of 1130 but not above 1050. The intermediate term trend is now bullish and the long term trend is bullish. If a positive earnings season and  lack of too negative of economic data  occurs, the S&P 500 should jump above 1150 and test 1170. Above that is the 2010 YTD April 23 closing high of 1217.28.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Below is the SPX monthly chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary are the same as for the daily chart above. The higher and lower yellow horizontal lines are the current trading range discussed above. The yellow downtrend and uptrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal, as discussed above with the daily chart. SPX of 1146.24 is currently above the 10m ema of 1099.93 which signals a long-term bull market.



Related Articles and Links
Recent Posts by Financial Controls
Bank Failure Friday: FDIC Closes 2 Banks *2010 YTD Total Now 127*
Federal Reserve: Pace of Economic Recovery Likely to be Modest in Near Term (Review)
Fed Beige Book: USA Economic Growth at Modest Pace (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Pace of Economic Recovery Has Slowed Somewhat (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Moderate Recovery, Outlook "Unusually Uncertain" (Review)
FOMC Lowers USA 2010 GDP Projection (Review)
Recent Posts by Boom Doom Economy
USA Weekly Leading Index at 2 Week High (Charts) "Suggests recovery will remain sluggish"
USA Q2 GDP Revised Slightly Upwards to +1.7% (Chart)
USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 3 Week High (Charts) *Total Claims 465,000*
Global Services PMI at 6 Month Low (Chart) *Growing at Slower Rate in August*
USA Consumer Sentiment Drops to 13 Month Low (Chart)
USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August (Chart)
USA Total Consumer Credit Decreases in July (Charts)
USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 4-Week High (Charts)
USA Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Contracts -2.8% in August (Chart)
USA Unemployment Rate Edges Up To 9.6% In August (Charts)
USA Manufacturing PMI Expands in August +0.8% (Chart)


Disclosure
We have no position in SPX or any related ETF.


Follow Matrix Markets On Twitter!


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