Saturday, February 25, 2012

Global Consumer Confidence Flat, Pessimistic: "Some caution for the year ahead"

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Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey

Global Consumer Confidence Flat, Pessimistic Global online consumer confidence increased +1 to 89, after 7 consecutive quarterly declines. However, confidence decreased in 35 of 56 global markets measured. The economy, political stability, and increasing food prices were the top 3 global concerns. e survey, conducted between November 23 and December 9, 2011. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism.

Key Findings
● Consumer Confidence around the world increases one point to 89
● China confidence increases four points to 108
● Confidence declines in 24 of 27 European markets
● More than half (52%) describe finances as excellent/good
● 65% think it is not a good time to buy
● U.S. consumer confidence index increases 6 points to 83

Global Online Consumer Confidence The current reading of 89 (+1) is just below the chart average of 89.7.

Global Online Consumer Confidence by Region Asia Pacific was highest at 99 (+2) followed closely by Latin America at 98 (+1). Middle East/Africa continued #3 at 95 (-1), followed by North America at 84 (+5), and Europe at 71 (-3).

Confidence by Country India continues as the most optimistic country at 122 (+1), followed by Indonesia 117 (+3), Philippines 117 (+5), Saudi Arabia 113 (-7), Brazil 112 (0), and China 108 (+4). Hungary continues as the most pessimistic country at 30 (-7), followed by Portugal 36 (-4), Greece 41 (-10), Croatia 43 (+3), and South Korea 46 (+6).

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased +6 to 83 in Q4 2011, from 77 in Q3 2011, 78 in Q2 2011, and 83 in Q1 2011.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012

CEO Confidence Rebounds, "Remains Rather Subdued, Improved Short-Term Outlook"

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CEO Confidence The Measure of CEO Confidence was up +7 to 49 for the Q4 2011. This was after plunging in the prior 2 quarters. The previous Q3 2011 was a 10-quarter low of 42, the lowest reading since 30 in Q1 2009. The current level is at approximately the same reading as Q3 2010.

Measure of CEO Confidence (Chart) Below is a chart of The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence from Q3 2008 through the latest quarter reported. A reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses. The Post-Great Recession high has been 67 in Q1 2011. The Great Recession low was 24 in Q4 2008.


Commentary CEO confidence for Q4 2011 has rebounded, but is slightly pessimistic. The prior Q3 2011 reading was taken from mid-August to mid-September, just after the USA debt ceiling gridlock and downgrade by S&P. The current Q4 2011 reading was taken from mid-November to mid-December as USA economic data improved. Looking at the short-term outlook, CEOs do not expect a strong economic recovery, "about 32 percent of business leaders anticipate an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months, up from 19 percent in the third quarter".

Supplemental Charts Below are additional charts of CEO expectations and sentiment, from Q3 2008 through the latest quarter reported, for Economic Expectations, 6 Months Ahead and Expectations for Own Industry, 6 Months Ahead. The overall trend is consistent with the Measure of CEO Confidence, an improved sentiment and short-term outlook.


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