Recession Indicator Just Reversed to Growth

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David Rosenberg's Recession Indicator Flipped Positive Today

(Business Insider) In October, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg warned of a big red flag signaling a recession in the United States.

The year-over-year change in the three-month moving average of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts (also referred to as "core capex") had turned negative.

Rosenberg considers this chart the purest look at what businesses are doing with their cash.

Today's durable goods report revealed a surge in core capex in January. Nondefense orders ex-aircraft and parts jumped 6.3 percent, way above economists' estimates of a flat reading.

Read more at Business Insider.

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John Williams: America in New Recession in 2013

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John Williams

John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: We're Going to Be in a New Recession in 2013

http://usawatchdog.com/ - John Williams of Shadowstats.com has long contended the Fed is really just using the weak economy to continue to prop up the banking system. Williams says, "If the Fed wasn't doing what it's doing . . . I'd presume you'd be on the road to a banking system collapse. The banking system is still in trouble." Williams warns the "open-ended" printing of $85 billion a month ". . . will be part of what will eventually become hyperinflation." And if there is no deal on the so-called "fiscal cliff," then Williams expects "heavy selling pressure on the U.S. dollar." Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams.

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Marc Faber: Europe, UK, USA in a Colossal Mess

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Marc Faber

West in a ‘Colossal Mess’ in Five to 10 Years: Marc Faber

The debt burden in the U.S. and other Western countries will continue to increase, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report told CNBC on Monday, leading to a “colossal mess” within the next five to 10 years.

“I think the regimes will try to keep the system alive as it is for as long as possible, which means there’s no “fiscal cliff,” there’s a fiscal grand canyon,” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Faber argued that the political systems in place in the West would allow the debt burden to continue to expand. Under such a scenario of never-ending deficits, the Western world would rack up huge deficits. One day, the system would break, he said.

“Eventually, you have either huge changes occurring in a peaceful fashion through reforms, or, usually, through revolutions,” he said. The U.S. is getting closer to such a revolution, he said, as is Europe.

“I think the timeframe would be within five to ten years you have a colossal mess … everywhere in the Western world,” Faber said. “I think the deficit here (in the U.S.) — irrespective of who is in the White House — will stay above a trillion dollars per annum for at least as far as the eye can see.”

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Peter Schiff: Unemployment, GDP, Debates, Dollar, Gold!

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Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: Unemployment, GDP, Debates, Dollar, Gold

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital.

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Peter Schiff: USA Is Already In A Recession!

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Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: We are Already in a Recession

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, on why he believes the economy is already contracting, and what, if any, impact the 2012 elections will have on the economy.

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John Williams: America is Bankrupt, Economic Collapse in 2014!

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John Williams

John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse

http://usawatchdog.com/ - Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics.

Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest.

Long before 2014, Shadowstats.com thinks there is a good chance of "panic selling of the U.S. dollar," if the Federal Reserve starts another round of money printing (QE3) to save the system and the big banks.

No matter what Williams predicts, "There will eventually be a crisis to bring the system down as we know it. We're on the brink." According to Williams, "at some point, you will see a new currency in the U.S."

The founder of Shadowstats.com sat down for a one on one interview with Greg Hunter to talk about the mathematical certainty of a systemic collapse in the not-so-distant future.

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Marc Faber: 100 Percent Odds Of A Global Recession

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Marc Faber: 100% Chance of Global Recession In this "Closing Bell" excerpt, 'Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report' publisher Marc Faber explains why he thinks there's a 100 percent chance a global recession is coming.

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Peter Schiff: Endless Fed QE, Paul Ryan's Hopeless Budget, Bond Bubble Bursting

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Peter Schiff

Endless QE, Ryan Budget All Hope No Change, Has the Bond Bubble Burst?

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Peter Schiff: Phony GDP Growth, Farmer Bailouts, Sub-Prime Auto Loans

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Peter Schiff

Phony GDP Growth, Farm Subsidies, Sub-Prime Auto Loans

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Peter Schiff: America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008!

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Peter Schiff

America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! Says Peter Schiff

According to CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff, the U.S. economy is heading for an economic crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Stimulus programs can delay this day of reckoning, but only for so long and only at the expense of making the eventual meltdown much, much worse.

Schiff, who famously warned investors about the housing and financial crisis in his 2007 book Crash Proof, says the Fed's palliative efforts during the housing meltdown have made the next crisis inevitable.

"We've got a much bigger collapse coming, and not just of the markets but of the economy," Schiff says in the attached clip. "It's like what you're seeing in Europe right now, only worse."

In this nightmare scenario detailed in The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy, the current economic pause is actually the beginning of a material slowdown or recession into year end. At that point, the Federal Reserve will unleash a third round of Quantitative Easing — weakening the dollar without jump-starting the economy. As a result of dollar weakness, import prices rise, pressing the margins of corporate America. Lower margins lead to heavy layoffs, sending millions of workers into unemployment during a time when they can least afford it. Banks fail, housing collapses, and taxes are raised in a futile effort to give the tapped-out government the capital to try yet more futile stimulus.

"That's when it really is going to get interesting, because that's when we hit our real fiscal cliff, when we're going to have to slash — and I mean slash — government spending," says Schiff.

Those cuts will not be at all unlike the draconian austerity measures in Greece, with programs like Social Security and Medicare being dramatically cut or possibly disappearing entirely. The easiest way to put it, is that everything you don't think could possibly happen in America will come to be.

"Alternatively, we can bail everybody out, pretend we can print our way out of a crisis, and, instead, we have runaway inflation, or hyper-inflation, which is going to be far worse than the collapse we would have if we did the right thing and just let everything implode," he offers.

So what should investors do to protect themselves? Schiff has three suggestions: 1 - Get Out of Treasuries 2 - Own the Right Stocks 3 - Buy Silver and Gold

Breakout with Jeff Macke

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Peter Schiff: Fed Must Fess Up and Level With the American Public

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Peter Schiff

Bernanke Must Fess Up and Level With the American Public: Schiff

According to Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, those of you looking to learn what's happening in the U.S. are better off paying attention to almost anything other than Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony. "You might be able to to trade off what he has to say but it doesn't have any bearing on what's actually happening," he states.

It would be ideal for Bernanke to start pulling the plug on the monetary stimulus we have to allow the economy to detoxify. We have serious structural problems exacerbated, if not directly caused by fiscal and monetary intrusions already. Comparing our economy to Keith Richards, cancer patients and other terminal cases, Schiff thinks it's long past time to "'fess up, level with the American public and tell them what needs to be done."

Comparing the economy to a heroin addict avoiding withdrawal, Schiff says the only remedy is going cold turkey. The pain of such a move would be brutal for many Americans, but for working taxpayers picking up the tab the relief would be immediate and welcomed. Sounding like a more Draconian version of Ronald Reagan or even Bill Clinton, Schiff thinks reducing benefits will get more people off the dole, drive prices lower and eventually result in a more healthy economy.

None of which you'll hear from Bernanke. The testimony of today and yesterday bring out the worst instincts in everyone involved. Bernanke will evade and the politicians will pander while groping for that one soundbite that will be perfect for an campaign ad. Speaking into microphones and in front of cameras on the Hill is the best way on earth to ensure nothing useful gets done.

"Everybody is resisting the needed reform because it's bad politics," shouts Schiff. Whatever you think of his solutions it's hard to disagree with that assessment.

Breakout with Jeff Macke

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Nouriel Roubini: Perfect Storm for World Economy in 2013!

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Roubini's Devastating Diagnosis - Freeland File

Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economist nicknamed "Doctor Doom" for his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that events are again turning against the global economy.

Professor Nouriel Roubini forecasts a "global perfect storm" in 2013 for the world economy, if five events occur:
* Crisis in Europe intensifies, recession ensues
* USA reaches fiscal cliff (tax increases and spending cuts), recession ensues
* Chinese economy slows further, has hard landing
* A slowdown in emerging markets (notably Brazil, Russia, India)
* A military confrontation in Iran

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Peter Schiff: USA Jobs, The Real Fiscal Cliff, Obamanomics

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USA Jobs, The Real Fiscal Cliff, Obamanomics The Schiff Report - 7/9/2012

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Marc Faber: Europe In Recession Right Now

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Siegel, Faber on Europe & China "The ECB should ensure all the deposits of the major banks in the euro zone," says Jeremy Siegel, of the Wharton School at The University of Pennsylvania. Meanwhile Marc Faber, "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," shares a bearish view on China. Harry Wilson, former Silver Point Capital partner, weighs in.

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