USA Consumer Confidence Increases to 57-Month High!

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

The November 2012 Consumer Confidence Index increased +0.6 to 73.7 (preliminary) to a 57-month high, after descending to a 9-month low in August. Fickle Americans: this summer Armageddon was on the horizon and now happy days are here again!

The November reading is just below the 74.2 monthly average from January 2005 through November 2012. However, this reading is significantly above the dismal October 2011 reading of 40.9, which was a 30-month low, the lowest since April 2009. Compared to the Pre-Great Recession peak of 111.9 in July 2007 consumer confidence continues at historically low levels regardless of the monthly ups and downs.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "The Consumer Confidence Index increased in November and is now at its highest level in more than four and a half years (76.4 Feb. 2008). This month’s moderate improvement was the result of an uptick in expectations, while consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions continues to hold steady. Over the past few months, consumers have grown increasingly more upbeat about the current and expected state of the job market, and this turnaround in sentiment is helping to boost confidence."

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 73.7 in November 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45.2 average and the Post-Great Recession peak has been 2011 at a 58.2 average, which was a 4-year high. For the 11 months ended November 2012, consumer confidence is at a 5-year high of 67.3.



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Peter Schiff: Black Friday, Fiscal Cliff, Gold, Dollar

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Peter Schiff

Black Friday, Fiscal Cliff, Gold, Dollar

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USA Consumer Sentiment Continues at Multi-Year Highs

USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Consumer confidence remained largely unchanged from last month at its highest level in five years. When asked to identify any recent economic news, consumers more frequently made unfavorable references to potential changes in future federal tax and spending programs as well as the inability of the political parties to reach a timely settlement. There have only been five other surveys during the past half century in which more consumers spontaneously mentioned their uncertainty about government policies. Interestingly, the past occurrences were also related to taxes, spending, and the federal deficit: Clinton’s deficit reduction program in 1993 and last summers debt ceiling debate which prompted a drop in the Sentiment Index to 55.8, the fourth lowest level recorded in the long history of the surveys. While consumers remain optimistic, that optimism is contingent on the promise of no higher taxes, except on the wealthy.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



"The gains in confidence ended in late November as consumers became more uncertain about when and how the fiscal cliff with be bridged. While they had anticipated a last minute settlement, some consumers are beginning to doubt whether that will happen before higher tax rates take effect in January. While a resolution just before year-end could reverse any future spending declines, it would nonetheless diminish holiday spending. Moreover, consumers do not make a distinction between federal income and payroll taxes, so any settlement that excludes an extension of the payroll tax cut could reduce optimism starting in early January."

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Max Keiser: Crash JP Morgan & Jamie Dimon, Buy Silver!

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Max Keiser

Keiser Report: 'Crash JP Morgan' - 2nd Anniversary Special

In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert present the two year anniversary special of their Crash JPM, Buy Silver campaign. They discuss JP Morgan doing everything to protect the Queen of their massive silver short position - a position that has DOUBLED in the past two years according to Rob Kirby of GATA and Kirby Analytics. They also discuss Central Banks pullling on their own little bungee cords by printing money. In the second half, Max Keiser talks to James Turk of Goldmoney.com about the link between liberty and gold and the shooting war to follow the currency war. The also discuss the gold/silver ratio and why silver today is like gold at $600.

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USA Consumer Confidence Increases to 55-Month High!

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

The October 2012 Consumer Confidence Index increased +3.8 to 72.2 (preliminary) to a 55-month high, after descending to a 9-month low in August. Fickle Americans: this summer Armageddon was on the horizon and then happy days are here again!

The October reading is below the 74.1 monthly average from January 2005 through October 2012. However, this reading is significantly above the dismal October 2011 reading of 40.9, which was a 30-month low, the lowest since April 2009. Compared to the Pre-Great Recession peak of 111.9 in July 2007 consumer confidence continues at historically low levels regardless of the monthly ups and downs.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "The Consumer Confidence Index increased again in October and is now at its highest level this year. Consumers were considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions, with improvements in the job market as the major driver. Consumers were modestly more upbeat about their financial situation and the short-term economic outlook, and appear to be in better spirits approaching the holiday season."

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 72.2 in October 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45.2 average and the Post-Great Recession peak has been 2011 at a 58.2 average, which was a 4-year high. For the 10 months ended October 2012, consumer confidence is at a 5-year high of 66.6.



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Global Consumer Confidence Subdued

Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey

Global Consumer Confidence Subdued

Global consumer confidence increased one index point in third quarter to a score of 92 as consumers are caught between very slow improvement in some regions, and the threat of further crises posed by economic volatility, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy.

“The subdued third-quarter results reflect an overall trend that is neither positive nor negative as consumers are treading water very carefully,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “Consumers played it safe in Q3, especially in Europe, which still faces a very precarious economic situation despite some recent stabilizing policy initiatives by the European Central Bank. Export growth from China, especially to the Euro zone, has slowed substantially accompanied by restraint among consumers there. Consumers in the U.S., while less directly impacted by Europe, continue to be cautious in the face of an uneven recovery, marked by still-elevated unemployment levels and disappointing payroll growth.”

Key Findings
● Recessionary sentiment grew
● Minimal shift reported in discretionary spending patterns
● Global consumers continued to cut back
● Biggest concerns centered on economy and jobs
● North America posted most positive confidence increase

Global Online Consumer Confidence The current reading of 92 (+1) is above the chart average (90.6).



Global Online Consumer Confidence by Region Asia Pacific continues highest at 100 (no change), followed by Middle East/Africa at 98 (no change), and Latin America at 94 (-2). North America is next at 91 (+3). Europe continues trailing at 74 (+1).



Confidence by Country

Indonesia and India are the most most optimistic countries at 119, followed by Philippines 118, United Arab Emirates 114, Saudi Arabia 113, Thailand 112, Brazil 100, China 106, Malaysia 105, and Switzerland 104.

Hungary continues as the most pessimistic country at 37, followed by South Korea 40, Croatia 41, Portugal 41, Greece 46, Italy 46, Spain 48, Japan 59, Romania 60, and France 61.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased +3 to 90 and is higher mid-tier worldwide. Previous readings were 87 in Q2 2012, 92 in Q1 2012, 83 in Q4 2011, 77 in Q3 2011, 78 in Q2 2011, 83 in Q1 2011.

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USA Consumer Sentiment Surges to 5-Year High!

USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

American optimism has surged upwards as the Index of Consumer Sentiment is now at 82.6 (October 2012), the highest reading since September 2007. This hopefulness is well above the long-term average of 75.9, the monthly average from January 2005 through October 2012.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



The preliminary October 2012 Index of Consumer Sentiment was 83.1, but the -0.5 adjustment to the final October 2012 reading of 82.6 continued the upsurge.

"The very positive economic expectations of consumers stand in sharp contrast to growing concerns expressed by investors and companies about the impending fiscal cliff as well as the impact of a slowing global economy. While the surge in confidence will act to bolster consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season, it also means that this higher level of optimism is more vulnerable to reversal depending on how and when the fiscal cliff is bridged. The surge in consumer optimism may be largely due to the implied election promises of both candidates that most of the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts will be promptly extended"

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