Peter Schiff: USA GDP Scam Exposed!

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Peter Schiff

GDP Propaganda Exposed!

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Peter Schiff: U.S. Economy, David Stockman, Unemployment, Gold

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Peter Schiff

Jobs Report, David Stockman, U.S. Economy, Gold

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Small Business Hiring Less Than Big Corporations

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(Business Insider) The U.S. economy added 236k jobs in February and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent. As slow as hiring has been, small businesses have been hiring far less than the big corporations.

From TD Securities' Millan Mulraine: Labor market underperformance: The small business sector has generally been a key source of employment growth in the US economy, accounting for close to 55% of all the private sector jobs created between mid-2003 and the beginning of the last recession. Its overall contributions has fallen dramatically in recent years, accounting for a miserly 33% of the jobs created since the economic rebound. This disappointing performance has been reflected in the massive divergence between the plans to hire sub-component of the NFIB and its composite employment counterpart.

Mulraine writes that part of the problem is limited access to credit. "Indeed, while overall credit conditions have been on the mend, access to credit has generally been identified as a sour point for small business owners," he writes. "Consequently, the proportion of businesses indicating a willingness to increase capital spending has held steady at around 20%, which is well below the 30% average prior to the recession, suggesting that credit access has remained a binding constraint for both hiring and capital spending decisions."

Source

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Earnings Reviews: Updated List

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Earnings Reviews To-Date

A list of the most recent earnings reviews for the following companies:

SalesForce (CRM) February 28, 2013
The Salesforce Anomaly: Record Earnings And Ongoing Losses
Why The Salesforce GAAP Vs. Non-GAAP Divergence?

HP (HPQ) February 21, 2013
HP Earnings Begin Long Journey Back

American International Group (AIG) February 21, 2013
AIG Weathers Storm Sandy, Posts Profit

MetLife (MET) February 13, 2013
MetLife Earnings: Where Do We Go From Here?

Cisco (CSCO) February 13, 2013
Cisco Earnings Beat: This Is How We Roll

Rackspace (RAX) February 12, 2013
Rackspace Earnings Disappoint On Record Results

Visa (V) February 6, 2013
Visa Earnings Push Higher

Baidu (BIDU) February 4, 2013
Baidu Earnings Disappoint: Revenues Up, Margins Down

Qualcomm (QCOM) January 30, 2013
Qualcomm Earnings: Life Is Good

Amazon (AMZN) January 29, 2013
Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail

VMware (VMW) January 28, 2013
VMware Earnings: Down But Not Out

Microsoft (MSFT) January 24, 2013
Microsoft Earnings Review: Windows Saves the Quarter!

Apple (AAPL) January 23, 2013
Apple Earnings Review: EPS Misses on Record Revenues!

Google (GOOG) January 22, 2013
Google Earnings Review: Hopeful Signs in a Multi-Screen World

IBM (IBM) January 22, 2013
IBM Earnings Review and Charts

Intel (INTC) January 18, 2013
Intel Earnings Review: Decline Continues

Morgan Stanley (MS) January 18, 2013
Morgan Stanley Earnings Review: Up and Down They Go

Capital One Financial (COF) January 17, 2013
Capital One Earnings Review: Performance Slows

PNC Financial Services (PNC) January 17, 2013
PNC Earnings Review: Poised to Perform

Citigroup (C) January 17, 2013
Citigroup Earnings Review: Downtrend Reversed!

Bank of America (BAC) January 17, 2013
Bank of America Earnings Review: Limping Along

BNY Mellon (BK) January 16, 2013
BNY Mellon Earnings Review: Another Average Quarter

US Bancorp (USB) January 16, 2013
US Bancorp Earnings Review: Peaking Performance?

Goldman Sachs (GS) January 16, 2013
Goldman Sachs Earnings Review: Multi-Year High for Banksters!

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) January 16, 2013
JPMorgan Earnings Review: Strong Profits Continue

Wells Fargo (WFC) January 12, 2013
Wells Fargo Earnings Review: Raises the Bar Higher!

Oracle (ORCL) September 20, 2012
Oracle Earnings Review: EPS Strengthens, Revenues Weaken, Outlook Stable

$XLF $XLK

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USA Consumer Sentiment Rebounds on Improved Jobs Prospects

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Confidence Improves Due to Expected Job Gains

(University of Michigan) - ANN ARBOR - Consumer confidence improved in the February survey due to more positive signs of expanding employment. When consumers were asked to describe in their own words what economic developments they had recently heard, net job gains were much more commonly reported in February than anytime since last May. The improvement in job prospects was due to a slight uptick in prospects for the national economy. Consumers are still dismayed about the state of government economic policies, with one-in-four spontaneously mentioning some negative aspect. Overall confidence in government economic policies remained near its all-time low, with just 15% who thought the Obama administration and Congress were doing a good job.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month
Current Sentiment: 77.6 (+3.8)
Post-Recession High: 82.7 (November 2012)
Great Recession Low: 55.3 (November 2008)
Pre-Recession Peak: 96.9 (January 2007)



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year
Current Sentiment: 75.7 (-0.8)
Post-Recession High: 76.5 (2012)
Great Recession Low: 63.8 (2008)
Pre-Recession Peak: 88.6 (2005)



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Recession Indicator Just Reversed to Growth

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David Rosenberg's Recession Indicator Flipped Positive Today

(Business Insider) In October, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg warned of a big red flag signaling a recession in the United States.

The year-over-year change in the three-month moving average of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts (also referred to as "core capex") had turned negative.

Rosenberg considers this chart the purest look at what businesses are doing with their cash.

Today's durable goods report revealed a surge in core capex in January. Nondefense orders ex-aircraft and parts jumped 6.3 percent, way above economists' estimates of a flat reading.

Read more at Business Insider.

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USA Consumer Confidence Rises to 3-Month High

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

(The Conference Board) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, rebounded in February. The Index now stands at 69.6 (1985=100), up from 58.4 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 63.3 from 56.2. The Expectations Index improved to 73.8 from 59.9 last month.

Consumer Confidence Index by Month
Current Index: 69.6
Post-Recession High: 73.1 (October 2012)
Great Recession Low: 25.3 (February 2009)
Pre-Recession High: 111.9 (July 2007)



Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer Confidence rebounded in February as the shock effect caused by the fiscal cliff uncertainty and payroll tax cuts appears to have abated. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions is more positive than last month. Looking ahead, consumers are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Income expectations, which had turned rather negative last month, have improved modestly.”

Consumer Confidence Index by Year



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Architectural Billings Up, Bullish for Stock Market?

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Architectural Billings Rise

An Obscure Real Estate Indicator Is Looking Like a 'Huge Tailwind' for the Stock Market 

(Business Insider) The Architecture Billings Index jumped to 54.2 from last month's 51.2 reading, the fastest rate of growth in more than five years.

The index is a leading indicator for commercial real estate.

Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading and strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, sent along the chart below (the billings index in red versus the S&P 500 in blue), describing the surge in billings as a "huge tailwind" for the market.

The chart below suggests that billings can at times correlate with the market – but of course, that is not always the case.

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USA Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in February

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

USA Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in February

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment improved in February, buoyed by signs of increased hiring, though worries heightened about a decline in future income. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment rose to 76.3 from 73.8 in January, topping economists' forecasts of 74.8.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month
Current Sentiment: 76.3 (+2.5)
Post-Recession High: 82.7 (November 2012)
Great Recession Low: 55.3 (November 2008)
Pre-Recession Peak: 96.9 (January 2007)



Households with incomes below $75,000 were among the most optimistic, "with expected gains in employment more than offsetting declines in after-tax incomes due to the end of the payroll tax cut," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Year
Current Sentiment: 75.1 (-1.5)
Post-Recession High: 76.5 (2012)
Great Recession Low: 63.8 (2008)
Pre-Recession Peak: 88.6 (2005)



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Peter Schiff: The Real State of the Union 2013

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Peter Schiff

The Real State of the Union - 2013

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USA Consumer Sentiment Subdued by Payroll Tax Hike

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Payroll Tax Hike Narrows January Gains in Consumer Confidence

"The Sentiment Index was 73.8 in the January 2013 survey, up from 72.9 in December, but below last January’s reading of 75.0. The two components of the index moved in opposite directions. The Expectations Index posted a gain to 66.6 in January from 63.8 in December, while the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 85.0 in January from 87.0 in December."

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



Richard Curtin, Director of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, said "The end of the payroll tax holiday had a significant impact on consumer confidence, especially among lower income households. When asked to describe recent changes in their financial situation, declines in disposable incomes were much more frequent among households with incomes below $75,000. Indeed, higher income households much more frequently mentioned income gains in January than in the December survey. While consumer spending will slow in 2013, spending by higher income households, especially on interest sensitive purchases of homes, vehicles and household durables, will keep consumer spending slowly expanding in 2013."

USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



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Global Consumer Confidence: "We Start the New Year with Caution"

Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey

Global Consumer Confidence: Concerns Around the World

"Global consumer confidence indexed at 91 in Q4 2012, a one-point decline from Q3 2012, but an increase of two points from Q4 2011, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy. However, the relatively flat global average across the last year does not tell the entire story. Across the 58 countries we measured in Q4 2012, confidence declined in 33 countries, remained flat in six countries, and increased in 19 countries relative to the prior quarter."

Global Online Consumer Confidence by Quarter
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism.




“Consumers around the world grappled with increasing economic concerns as the Euro zone crisis spread from troubled to core countries, the United States fiscal cliff threat loomed large, and China’s rising inflation sparked monetary policy action,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “Consumers are proceeding with caution in 2013 and showed renewed discretionary spending restraint in the last quarter amid further global economic and political uncertainty.”

Global Online Consumer Confidence by Region
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism.



"Asia-Pacific (101) and Latin America (96) reported the only regional consumer confidence index increases in Q4, rising one and two points, respectively. Middle East/Africa declined two points to 96, North America dropped one point to 90, and Europe decreased three index points to 71, compared to Q3."

Confidence by Country

India is the most most optimistic country at 121, followed by Philippines 119, Indonesia 117, Thailand 115, United Arab Emirates 113, Saudi Arabia 112, Brazil 111, China 108, Malaysia 103, and Norway 102.

Greece is now the most pessimistic country at 35, followed by Hungary 37, South Korea 38, Portugal 38, Italy 39, Croatia 42, Spain 46, France 52, Slovakia 57, and Japan 59.

U.S. Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence in the U.S. decreased -1 to 89, which is upper mid-tier worldwide. Previous readings were 90 in Q3 2012, 87 in Q2 2012, 92 in Q1 2012, 83 in Q4 2011, 77 in Q3 2011, 78 in Q2 2011, 83 in Q1 2011.

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William Ackman: Everything You Need to Know About Finance & Investing

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William Ackman

William Ackman: Activist Investor and Hedge-Fund Manager

We all want to be financially stable and enjoy a well-funded retirement, and we don't want to throw out our hard earned money on poor investments. But most of us don't know the first thing about finance and investing. Acclaimed value investor William Ackman teaches you what it takes to finance and grow a successful business and how to make sound investments that will grant you to a cash-comfy retirement.
The Floating University
Originally released September 2011

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Legacy of Benjamin Graham: Master of Value Investing

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Benjamin Graham

Legacy of Benjamin Graham

Legacy of Benjamin Graham: The Original Adjunct Professor. This film, brought to you by the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, Columbia Business School, premiered on February 1, 2013 at the 16th Annual Columbia Student Investment Management Association conference.

Produced by: Louisa Serene Schneider

Shot & Edited by: Christina Choe

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USA Consumer Confidence Drop Erases 2012 Gains

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

(The Conference Board) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in December, fell further in January. The Index now stands at 58.6 (1985=100), down from 66.7 in December. The Expectations Index declined to 59.5 from 68.1. The Present Situation Index decreased to 57.3 from 64.6 last month.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer Confidence posted another sharp decline in January, erasing all of the gains made through 2012. Consumers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook and, in particular, their financial situation. The increase in the payroll tax has undoubtedly dampened consumers’ spirits and it may take a while for confidence to rebound and consumers to recover from their initial paycheck shock.”

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) had reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 73.1 in October 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45 average and the Post-Great Recession peak is now 2012 at a 5-year high of 67. The 2013 average, only one month January, is 59.



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USA Consumer Sentiment Plunges to 1-Year Low!

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated for a second straight month to its lowest in over a year in January, with many consumers citing fallout from the recent "fiscal cliff" debate in Washington. The sharp drop in sentiment over the last two months coincides with rancorous federal budget negotiations that have led to higher taxes for many Americans.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



"The most unique aspect of the early January data was that an all-time record number of consumers - 35 percent - negatively referred to the fiscal cliff negotiations," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "Importantly, the debt ceiling debate is still upcoming and could further weaken confidence," he said.

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USA CEO Confidence: "Remains pessimistic by historical standards"

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Measure of CEO Confidence = 46%

Economic Conditions Have Improved Compared to Six Months Ago = 15%

Economic Conditions Expected to Improve Over the Next Six Months = 23%

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Peter Schiff: Congress Sells America Down the River to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff

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Peter Schiff

Congress Sells America Down the River to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff

In a disgraceful show of political expediency, Congress put its own political self-interest ahead of the national interest. They "saved" us from a contrived crisis of their own making, only to condemn us to far more horrific fate when the real crisis arrives. This one will come not because we went over the fiscal cliff, but because we avoided doing so. Going over the fiscal cliff merely represented a small down payment on the solution. By failing to make it, the ultimate price we will inevitably pay will be that much higher.

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