S&P 500 The S&P 500 closed today, Thursday, July 7, 2011, at 1353.22. The SPX closing at 1363.61 on Friday, April 29, 2011 was a multi-year closing high, the highest close since the closing of 1404.05 on June 5, 2008. SPX is now just -0.76% below that multi-year closing. SPX is up +676.69 and +100.02% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom (closing of 676.53) which was 850 days ago. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +2.47% for July, was down -1.83% for June, and is now up +7.60% for 2011. The current close has rallied well above the closings of 1300.68 on August 28, 2008 and 1305.31 on August 11, 2008, which was a rally peak, just before the USA financial crisis and market crash.
Volatility VIX closed today at 15.95. VIX continues below the 20, 50, 100, 200-day moving averages. The now mostly level 50d sma dropped below the now slightly descending 100d average on May 23 - a third Death Cross. The 100d sma crossed below the now descending 200d sma on November 11, 2010 - a second Death Cross. The 50d sma has remained below 200d sma since October 8, 2010 - the first Death Cross.
S&P 500 Macro View The SPX has rallied above the 1300 - 1305 area, which was the closing peak of the August 2008 rally, just before the Financial Crisis in September 2008. The SPX has now rallied above the the February 18, 2011 prior multi-year closing high of 1343. Next is the April 29, 2011 multi-year closing high of 1363, which is key, and final, current resistance.
S&P 500 DAILY CHART
S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is the SPX daily chart from April 29, 2011, when a multi-year closing high was set at 1363.61, to the current close. This chart illustrates recent price interactions, including with the April high and March low.
Noteworthy Closing Prices
Current Close: 1353.22
2011 High: April 29 1363.61
2011 Low: March 16 1256.88
2010 High: December 29 1259.78
2010 Low: July 2 1022.58
YE December 31, 2010: 1257.64
YE December 31, 2009: 1115.10
Intermediate Term Trend: ascending 25d sma less than slightly ascending 50d sma since 4-21-11; SPX is above 25d and 50d sma's, neutral/tenuously bullish
Long Term Trend: SPX greater than 10 month ema = 1289.73 since September 2010, tested in June, bullish
Key Resistance: multi-year closing high 1363-1364
Key Support: prior multi-year closing high 1343, 50d avg 1318, 100d avg 1317, 20d avg 1296, 200d avg 1271
Moving Averages: above rising 20d, slightly ascending 50d, mostly level 100d; ascending 200d sma
Uptrend Line: above since 6-28-11; line from 3-9-09 cyclical closing low of 676.53 up thru the 7-2-10 closing low of 1022.58
Downtrend Line: above since 7-7-11, had been below since 4-29-11, line from 10-9-07 all-time closing high of 1565.15 down thru the 4-29-11 multi-year closing high of 1363.61
RSI 14 day = 79.93 is overbought, ascending
RSI 28 day = 54.70 is reasonable, ascending
MACD (12,26,9) = +9.48, ascending, multi-year high
Conclusion Tomorrow, Friday, July 8, 2011 is when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the Employment Situation Summary for June. A Reuters poll estimates a +90,000 increase in private sector (nonfarm) jobs. A MarketWatch poll of analysts estimates a +125,000 increase. A report interpreted as positive should push the S&P 500 upwards to a test of 1363. A negative interpretation will stall the rally until earnings season begins next week (Monday, July 11, Alcoa reports after market close). A test of the multi-year closing high of 1363.61 (April 29) is imminent if the BLS employment report is positive. The intermediate-term trend indicator is neutral/tenuously bullish. The long-term trend indicator is bullish and has continued overall bullish since September 2010. Corporate earnings season begins July 11.
Disclosure We have no position in SPX, SPY, or any other related ETF as of this posting. We will so note such positions at the time of a weekly posting, but not any short-term trades, such as intraday or intraweek trades, between the weekly postings.
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