USA Consumer Confidence Drops with Oncoming Fiscal Cliff

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

(The Conference Board) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined slightly in November, posted another decrease in December. The Index now stands at 65.1 (1985=100), down from 71.5 in November. The Expectations Index declined sharply to 66.5 from 80.9. The Present Situation Index increased to 62.8 from 57.4 last month.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumers’ expectations retreated sharply in December resulting in a decline in the overall Index. The sudden turnaround in expectations was most likely caused by uncertainty surrounding the oncoming fiscal cliff. A similar decline in expectations was experienced in August of 2011 during the debt ceiling discussions. While consumers are quite negative about the short-term outlook, they are more upbeat than last month about current business and labor market conditions.”

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 73.1 in October 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45 average and the Post-Great Recession peak is now 2012 at a 5-year high of 67 (preliminary).



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John Williams: America in New Recession in 2013

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John Williams

John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: We're Going to Be in a New Recession in 2013

http://usawatchdog.com/ - John Williams of Shadowstats.com has long contended the Fed is really just using the weak economy to continue to prop up the banking system. Williams says, "If the Fed wasn't doing what it's doing . . . I'd presume you'd be on the road to a banking system collapse. The banking system is still in trouble." Williams warns the "open-ended" printing of $85 billion a month ". . . will be part of what will eventually become hyperinflation." And if there is no deal on the so-called "fiscal cliff," then Williams expects "heavy selling pressure on the U.S. dollar." Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams.

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USA Consumer Sentiment Plunges to 5-Month Low

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Confidence plunged in December as consumers confronted the rising likelihood that political gridlock would push the country over the fiscal cliff. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future finances, and more pessimistic about the outlook for the overall economy and job prospects. One-in-four consumers spontaneously mentioned hearing about prospects for higher taxes when asked to identify what economic news they had heard, the highest level ever recorded. While the Sentiment Index is still well above the August 2011 low associated with the Congressional debate on taxes, spending and the deficit, if no resolution is reached the falloff could easily worsen in the weeks ahead. Discounted prices and record low interest rates have forestalled declines in buying attitudes but consumers are likely to reduce purchases if income or payroll taxes increase in 2013. While consumers remain optimistic, that optimism is contingent on the promise of no higher taxes, except on the wealthy.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin said, "Confidence is lost much more easily than it can be regained, and the pessimism created by not reaching a resolution before year-end will be difficult to reverse even if a settlement is reached soon after the start of 2013. Blaming one side or the other for failure will only increase pessimism as it reflects a dysfunctional system for setting economic policy. Moreover, the details of the settlement matter, as it is hard to imagine a positive reaction if it did not include the extension of the payroll tax cut. While tax hikes on top incomes will result in spending declines, ending the payroll tax holiday will result in significant losses in confidence and spending."

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USA Consumer Confidence Increases to 57-Month High!

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

The November 2012 Consumer Confidence Index increased +0.6 to 73.7 (preliminary) to a 57-month high, after descending to a 9-month low in August. Fickle Americans: this summer Armageddon was on the horizon and now happy days are here again!

The November reading is just below the 74.2 monthly average from January 2005 through November 2012. However, this reading is significantly above the dismal October 2011 reading of 40.9, which was a 30-month low, the lowest since April 2009. Compared to the Pre-Great Recession peak of 111.9 in July 2007 consumer confidence continues at historically low levels regardless of the monthly ups and downs.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "The Consumer Confidence Index increased in November and is now at its highest level in more than four and a half years (76.4 Feb. 2008). This month’s moderate improvement was the result of an uptick in expectations, while consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions continues to hold steady. Over the past few months, consumers have grown increasingly more upbeat about the current and expected state of the job market, and this turnaround in sentiment is helping to boost confidence."

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 73.7 in November 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45.2 average and the Post-Great Recession peak has been 2011 at a 58.2 average, which was a 4-year high. For the 11 months ended November 2012, consumer confidence is at a 5-year high of 67.3.



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Peter Schiff: Black Friday, Fiscal Cliff, Gold, Dollar

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Peter Schiff

Black Friday, Fiscal Cliff, Gold, Dollar

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USA Consumer Sentiment Continues at Multi-Year Highs

USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Consumer confidence remained largely unchanged from last month at its highest level in five years. When asked to identify any recent economic news, consumers more frequently made unfavorable references to potential changes in future federal tax and spending programs as well as the inability of the political parties to reach a timely settlement. There have only been five other surveys during the past half century in which more consumers spontaneously mentioned their uncertainty about government policies. Interestingly, the past occurrences were also related to taxes, spending, and the federal deficit: Clinton’s deficit reduction program in 1993 and last summers debt ceiling debate which prompted a drop in the Sentiment Index to 55.8, the fourth lowest level recorded in the long history of the surveys. While consumers remain optimistic, that optimism is contingent on the promise of no higher taxes, except on the wealthy.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



"The gains in confidence ended in late November as consumers became more uncertain about when and how the fiscal cliff with be bridged. While they had anticipated a last minute settlement, some consumers are beginning to doubt whether that will happen before higher tax rates take effect in January. While a resolution just before year-end could reverse any future spending declines, it would nonetheless diminish holiday spending. Moreover, consumers do not make a distinction between federal income and payroll taxes, so any settlement that excludes an extension of the payroll tax cut could reduce optimism starting in early January."

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Max Keiser: Crash JP Morgan & Jamie Dimon, Buy Silver!

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Max Keiser

Keiser Report: 'Crash JP Morgan' - 2nd Anniversary Special

In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert present the two year anniversary special of their Crash JPM, Buy Silver campaign. They discuss JP Morgan doing everything to protect the Queen of their massive silver short position - a position that has DOUBLED in the past two years according to Rob Kirby of GATA and Kirby Analytics. They also discuss Central Banks pullling on their own little bungee cords by printing money. In the second half, Max Keiser talks to James Turk of Goldmoney.com about the link between liberty and gold and the shooting war to follow the currency war. The also discuss the gold/silver ratio and why silver today is like gold at $600.

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USA Consumer Confidence Increases to 55-Month High!

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

The October 2012 Consumer Confidence Index increased +3.8 to 72.2 (preliminary) to a 55-month high, after descending to a 9-month low in August. Fickle Americans: this summer Armageddon was on the horizon and then happy days are here again!

The October reading is below the 74.1 monthly average from January 2005 through October 2012. However, this reading is significantly above the dismal October 2011 reading of 40.9, which was a 30-month low, the lowest since April 2009. Compared to the Pre-Great Recession peak of 111.9 in July 2007 consumer confidence continues at historically low levels regardless of the monthly ups and downs.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "The Consumer Confidence Index increased again in October and is now at its highest level this year. Consumers were considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions, with improvements in the job market as the major driver. Consumers were modestly more upbeat about their financial situation and the short-term economic outlook, and appear to be in better spirits approaching the holiday season."

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 72.2 in October 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45.2 average and the Post-Great Recession peak has been 2011 at a 58.2 average, which was a 4-year high. For the 10 months ended October 2012, consumer confidence is at a 5-year high of 66.6.



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Global Consumer Confidence Subdued

Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey

Global Consumer Confidence Subdued

Global consumer confidence increased one index point in third quarter to a score of 92 as consumers are caught between very slow improvement in some regions, and the threat of further crises posed by economic volatility, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy.

“The subdued third-quarter results reflect an overall trend that is neither positive nor negative as consumers are treading water very carefully,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “Consumers played it safe in Q3, especially in Europe, which still faces a very precarious economic situation despite some recent stabilizing policy initiatives by the European Central Bank. Export growth from China, especially to the Euro zone, has slowed substantially accompanied by restraint among consumers there. Consumers in the U.S., while less directly impacted by Europe, continue to be cautious in the face of an uneven recovery, marked by still-elevated unemployment levels and disappointing payroll growth.”

Key Findings
● Recessionary sentiment grew
● Minimal shift reported in discretionary spending patterns
● Global consumers continued to cut back
● Biggest concerns centered on economy and jobs
● North America posted most positive confidence increase

Global Online Consumer Confidence The current reading of 92 (+1) is above the chart average (90.6).



Global Online Consumer Confidence by Region Asia Pacific continues highest at 100 (no change), followed by Middle East/Africa at 98 (no change), and Latin America at 94 (-2). North America is next at 91 (+3). Europe continues trailing at 74 (+1).



Confidence by Country

Indonesia and India are the most most optimistic countries at 119, followed by Philippines 118, United Arab Emirates 114, Saudi Arabia 113, Thailand 112, Brazil 100, China 106, Malaysia 105, and Switzerland 104.

Hungary continues as the most pessimistic country at 37, followed by South Korea 40, Croatia 41, Portugal 41, Greece 46, Italy 46, Spain 48, Japan 59, Romania 60, and France 61.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased +3 to 90 and is higher mid-tier worldwide. Previous readings were 87 in Q2 2012, 92 in Q1 2012, 83 in Q4 2011, 77 in Q3 2011, 78 in Q2 2011, 83 in Q1 2011.

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USA Consumer Sentiment Surges to 5-Year High!

USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

American optimism has surged upwards as the Index of Consumer Sentiment is now at 82.6 (October 2012), the highest reading since September 2007. This hopefulness is well above the long-term average of 75.9, the monthly average from January 2005 through October 2012.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month



USA Consumer Sentiment by Year



The preliminary October 2012 Index of Consumer Sentiment was 83.1, but the -0.5 adjustment to the final October 2012 reading of 82.6 continued the upsurge.

"The very positive economic expectations of consumers stand in sharp contrast to growing concerns expressed by investors and companies about the impending fiscal cliff as well as the impact of a slowing global economy. While the surge in confidence will act to bolster consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season, it also means that this higher level of optimism is more vulnerable to reversal depending on how and when the fiscal cliff is bridged. The surge in consumer optimism may be largely due to the implied election promises of both candidates that most of the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts will be promptly extended"

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Warren Buffett's Final Word on Stocks Is 'Hold'

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Warren Buffett

Buffett's Final Word: Hold

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO, explains why investors should not "buy" or "sell" on current news, adding, "it's just crazy."

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Marc Faber: Europe, UK, USA in a Colossal Mess

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Marc Faber

West in a ‘Colossal Mess’ in Five to 10 Years: Marc Faber

The debt burden in the U.S. and other Western countries will continue to increase, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report told CNBC on Monday, leading to a “colossal mess” within the next five to 10 years.

“I think the regimes will try to keep the system alive as it is for as long as possible, which means there’s no “fiscal cliff,” there’s a fiscal grand canyon,” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Faber argued that the political systems in place in the West would allow the debt burden to continue to expand. Under such a scenario of never-ending deficits, the Western world would rack up huge deficits. One day, the system would break, he said.

“Eventually, you have either huge changes occurring in a peaceful fashion through reforms, or, usually, through revolutions,” he said. The U.S. is getting closer to such a revolution, he said, as is Europe.

“I think the timeframe would be within five to ten years you have a colossal mess … everywhere in the Western world,” Faber said. “I think the deficit here (in the U.S.) — irrespective of who is in the White House — will stay above a trillion dollars per annum for at least as far as the eye can see.”

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USA Consumer Sentiment Skyrockets to 5-Year High!

USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Caesar's bread and circus policies have made the Romans giddy! Nowhere to go but up from now on! See you at the top! Willus Nelsonus has captured the citizen sentiment with his monster Colosseum hit, Blue Skies:
Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see
Bluebirds singin' a song
Nothin' but bluebirds all day long

Oh wait, I'm talking about the wrong Empire here. Sheesh, erase and rewind. Let's roll forward some centuries from that corrupt and fallen killing-machine Empire to the current American Empire. Wait, it's the same scenario!

Washington's bread and circus policies have made the Americans giddy! Nowhere to go but up from now on! See you at the top! The Republicans and Democrats have conclusively proven you can literally "have what you say"! No problem! The mass media corporate advertising delivery system confirms this everyday, so it has to be true.

Just give the citizens and special interests all they want, wage endless wars, issue debt to pay for all this, and have the central bank, the Federal Reserve, buy all debt that can't be foisted upon China, Americans, or other suckers, er, I mean sold to investors. It is all so simple, so easy. Those dimwitted Romans were so primitive, they had no clue how a real Empire operates. Duh.

American optimism has surged upwards as the Index of Consumer Sentiment is now at 83.1 (preliminary October 2012). What does this mean? We're talking the highest since September 2007. This reading is well above the long-term average of 75.9. That's the monthly average from January 2005 through October 2012.





"What changed was how they (consumers) evaluated economic conditions," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "Economic conditions during the year ahead were expected to be 'good' by more consumers, and more consumers expected 'good' economic times over the next five years."

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USA Consumer Confidence Surges to 7-Month High!

The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index

The September 2012 Consumer Confidence Index surged +9.0 to 70.3 (preliminary) to a 7-month high, after descending to a 7-month low last month. Fickle Americans: last month Armageddon was on the horizon and this month happy days are here again! The September reading is below the 74.2 monthly average from January 2005 through August 2012. However, this reading is significantly above the dismal October 2011 reading of 40.9, which was a 30-month low, the lowest since April 2009. Compared to the Pre-Great Recession peak of 111.9 in July 2007 consumer confidence continues at historically low levels regardless of the monthly ups and downs.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, "The Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in September and is back to levels seen earlier this year (71.6 in February 2012). Consumers were more positive in their assessment of current conditions, in particular the job market, and considerably more optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and their financial situation. Despite continuing economic uncertainty, consumers are slightly more optimistic than they have been in several months."

Consumer Confidence Index by Month The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 72.0 in February 2011. The Great Recession cyclical low was 25.3 in February 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 111.9 in July 2007.



Consumer Confidence Index by Year For each year, the related months are averaged. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at a 45.2 average and the Post-Great Recession peak has been 2011 at a 58.2 average, which was a 4-year high. For the 9 months ended September 2012, consumer confidence is at a 5-year high of 66.2.



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Peter Schiff: Inflation #1 Concern Among Registered Voters

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Peter Schiff

Fox News poll confirms: Inflation #1 concern among registered voters A just released Fox News Presidential Poll confirms that inflation is a bigger concern for voters than unemployment and the housing market combined. In fact, more than twice as many registered voters are concerned about the "inflation" tax as are worried about all other federal taxes combined!

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Marc Faber: Global Crash Coming!

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Marc Faber

Marc Faber's Biggest Warning Yet: Global Crash Coming! Dr. Doom, Marc Faber, warns of a global crash. He discusses China, as well as gold's next move, with CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now Traders, Rich Ilczyszyn, iiTrader LLC, and Anthony Grisanti, GRZ Energy.

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USA CEO Confidence: "Increasingly Pessimistic"

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Measure of CEO Confidence = 42%

Economic Conditions Have Improved Compared to Six Months Ago = 9%

Economic Conditions Expected to Improve Over the Next Six Months = 12%

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Peter Schiff: Unemployment, GDP, Debates, Dollar, Gold!

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Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: Unemployment, GDP, Debates, Dollar, Gold

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital.

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Peter Schiff: USA Is Already In A Recession!

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Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: We are Already in a Recession

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, on why he believes the economy is already contracting, and what, if any, impact the 2012 elections will have on the economy.

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Man Standing Next to All the Gold on Earth!

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A Guy Standing Next To All Of The Gold In The World

Warren Buffett famously observed that if you melted all of the gold in the world together, you could get a cube of about 68 feet per side. He said this would fit inside a baseball infield.

Deutsche Bank's Daniel Brebner and Xiao Fu recently published a massive report on gold. Like Buffett, the analyst illustrate what all of that gold would look like.

Business Insider: A Guy Standing Next To All Of The Gold In The World

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USA Consumer Sentiment At 4-Month High, Posts Significant Gain

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment boosted in early September by optimism on jobs

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in four months in September as Americans saw better prospects for the job market and economy.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment rose to 78.3 from 74.3 in August, the highest level since May.

Still, it was shy of economists' forecasts for 79, according to a Reuters poll, and gave up some of the advance seen in September's preliminary reading when the index climbed to 79.2.

Consumer expectations improved strongly, rising to 73.5 from 65.1, also the highest since May. More consumers expected the unemployment rate to fall than to rise, while twice as many survey respondents expected economic growth than those that anticipated a downturn.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month

USA Consumer Sentiment by Year

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David Stockman: "Federal Reserve & central banks are fundamental threat to economic future!"

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David Stockman on Federal Reserve Arrogance and Monetary Mission Creep!

Welcome to Capital Account. Now that the Fed has announced QE3 and Japan announced QE 8, Brazil is threatening defensive measures and bringing talk of Currency wars back, according to multiple press reports. Brazil's finance minister coined the term 'Currency Wars' two years ago as governments battled to lower exchange rates to boost competiveness. We talk to David Stockman, former director of the Office for Management and Budget during the Reagan administration, about the malignant effects of Federal Reserve policy and the lack of market-set interest rates!

Our guest, David Stockman, author of "The Triumph of Politics," recently had some choice words Federal Reserve, stating:"The Fed (and the lunatics that run it) are telling the whole world untruths about the cost of money and the price of risk." We talk to him about monetary policy, taxes, sound money, and more.

Plus, the U.S. Senate panel probing JP Morgan's multibillion dollar 'Whale Trade' loss plans to unveil its findings to press regulators to tighten the Volcker Rule. We ask David Stockman if this would be enough to rein in too big to fail bank risk.

Also we launch our Facebook page today! Check it out at www.facebook.com/pages/Capital-Account. Lauren shows off the new page and discusses your comments in Viewer Feedback.

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Gold Market Update: Volatile Week Ahead!

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Commodities Next Week: Gold Outlook After nearing 2012 highs, gold is set for volatile week ahead. CNBC's Sharon Epperson explains.

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Jim Rogers: Economic Conditions Will Worsen In 2013 & 2014

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Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers: Conditions Will Worsen in 2013 and 2014.

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USA Consumer Sentiment At 4-Month High, Americans More Upbeat

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USA Consumer Sentiment: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment boosted in early September by optimism on jobs

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in early September to its highest level in four months as Americans were more upbeat about their economic and job prospects.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index rose to 79.2 from 74.3 in August. That topped expectations for a decline to 74.0, according to a Reuters poll.

The gauge of consumer expectations climbed to 73.4 from 65.1, though the barometer of current economic conditions nudged down to 88.3 from 88.7. Both the sentiment and expectations measures were at their highest level since May.

But the improved optimism was likely a temporary bounce after the recent presidential candidate conventions, the report cautioned. "The sooner it is tempered, the less economic damage will be incurred due to failed expectations," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

USA Consumer Sentiment by Month

USA Consumer Sentiment by Year

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