S&P 500 and US Dollar: Weekend Review

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It is a week ending and a month ending, as of Friday, February 26, 2009.

The S&P 500, SPX, at 1104.49, is down 0.42% for the week, up 2.85% for the month, and down 0.95% for the year.  The US Dollar Index, USDX, at 80.69, is up 0.12% for the week, up 1.54% for the month, and up 3.52% for the year. Both the SPX and USD have traded sideways for the week. The S&P 500 is in an intermediate-term bear market and the US Dollar Index is in an intermediate-term bull market.  Both the S&P 500 and US Dollar Index are technically in a long-term bull market simultaneously. More about this in the analysis below and in the Summary at the end of this post.

S&P 500: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

Intermediate-Term Trend  The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the SPX.  That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 10, and only the second one since the March 2009 bottom. The recent pullback and subsequent sideways trading has created price damage that can only be repaired through sustained higher prices.

Resistance and Support  The close of 1104.49, the second highest yellow horizontal line, is in the recent resistance area from sideways trading in November and December 2009. SPX entered this resistance area on February 16 and has stayed in this range since. The trading lately has been generally identical to the aformentioned sideways trading in 2009.  The resistance from the October 2009 highs has been overcome, but tested.  Regaining the 1130+ price area and 2010 highs seems rather lofty at present.

Moving Averages SPX is below the 50d sma and tested the 100d sma this past week.  The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma breaking down through the 50d on February 10 and now the 100d sma on February 23. The SPX did briefly regain the 50d sma a week ago, but now has dropped below again, a bearish sign. The SPX did regain the 100d sma on February 17, but has been testing this level.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist and the encouraging bull signals of a week or so ago have been reversed, which results in an overall bearish tone.

Trend Lines  I have included two yellow uptrend lines. The higher uptrend line, a faster rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 1073.87. I am using this as a benchmark to monitor SPX price performance. The SPX has broken down through this trendline last week.  The second, lower yellow uptrend line, a slightly slower rate of price ascent, is a more traditional trendline. This trendline is from the March 9. 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74. The February 8 closing low has been the bottom of this pullback to-date. The SPX has remained above this trendline since bouncing up above on February 9.  Whether the SPX can continue above these trendlines, these rates of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

Long-Term Trend  The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The SPX is well above this 1049.85 signal with a close of 1104.49, which is the second highest yellow horizontal line. The third highest yellow horizontal line is the benchmark 1100.00 price.  The highest yellow horizontal line is the 12-31-09 year end price of 1115.10.

Conclusion  The SPX had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month through last week, but has pulled back some and began trading sideways.  The current sideways trading indicates uncertainty, but not fear.  Therefore, I don't foresee a huge drop, excluding an international crisis.  The bounce upwards needs to continue to generate higher prices that will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish. The encouraging bullish signals of a week ago are gone and a bearish tone prevails. The long-term trend is still bullish.

US Dollar: Intermediate-Term Bull Market Still Intact

Intermediate-Term Trend  The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bull market for the US Dollar. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma and has been since mid-December 2009. This is the first such bull market since from early February 2009 through early April 2009. This is also the first bull market since the March 2009 highs and subsequent decline in a bear market.  The rally has stalled in the past week and sideways trading has ensued.

Resistance and Support  The close of 80.69, the highest yellow horizontal line, maintains the price above the sideways trading of February 5-18. The current price is in the upper resistance area of sideways trading in May, June, and July 2009. Penetrating through this resistance would be a a major upside breakout.

Moving Averages The USD is above all the simple moving averages on the chart: 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d.  The 25d sma is ascending steeply, as is the 50d sma, for the first time since February and March 2009. The 100d sma is also ascending, and the 200d sma rate of descent is slowing. The 50d sma crossed above the 100d sma on January 22, 2010, signalling price strength. The 50d sma now has crossed above the 200d sma, the Golden Cross, on February 18. Both are very bullish signals. The 100d sma has not yet crossed the 200d sma.  The US Dollar gained and held the benchmark 80 price, the second highest yellow horizontal line, for 8 days now.. Overall, these are indications the price strength.

Trend Lines  I have included two yellow uptrend lines. The higher uptrend line, a faster rate of price ascent, is from the January 14, 2010 closing low of 76.76 up through the February 16, 2010 closing low of 79.62. The USD has now closed at this trendline.  The second, lower yellow uptrend line, a slower rate of price ascent, is a more traditional trendline. This trendline is from the November 27. 2009 closing low of 74.27 up through the January 14, 2010 closing low of 76.76. The USD has easily remained above this trendline since bouncing up above on January 19.  Whether the USD can continue above these trendlines, these rates of price ascent, will determine how strong this bull market is.

Long-Term Trend  The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The US Dollar is above this 78.98 signal, the third highest yellow horizontal line, with a close of 80.69, which is the highest horizontal yellow line. The second highest yellow horizontal line is the benchmark 80.00 price.  The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 12-31-09 year end price of 77.95.  A very long-term, well known downtrend line, not shown on this chart, from the January 2002 close of 120.22 down through the February 2009 close of 88.06, is still significantly above the USD current price, at approximately 83.50+.

Conclusion  The US Dollar has had a remarkable rally from the lows of late November and early December 2009. All the indicators reviewed above are positive for a continuing bull run. However, the rally has stalled this past week and sideways trading now exists.  The intermediate-term trend is still bullish. The long-term trend is still bullish. See comments below in the Summary.

Summary

The US Dollar is bullish, but the rally has stalled with sideways trading this past week.  The SPX rebounded from a pullback, but has now has traded sideways this past week.  There is uncertainty in the markets but not fear.  I think as long as there is downward pressure on the Euro and the GBK, and perhaps the Yen, the US Dollar can rise and continue a rally.  This creates downward presuure, a cap, on the SPX.

EUR/USD The EUR/USD signals are both intermediate-term and long-term bear markets, but a bottom process seems to exist at present.

GBP/USD The GBP/USD signals are both intermediate-term and long-term bear markets with no evidence of consolidation or support.

USD/JPY The USD/JPY is in both an intermediate-term and long-term bear market.  A recent rally of the USD versus the JPY has failed.  This strengthening of the JPY has negated the US Dollar Index bull run to some extent.

UUP and UDN ETFs Accordingly, the related signals for the US Dollar Index ETFs reflect the overall trend. The UUP ETF, the US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, is in both an intermediate-term and a long-term bull market. The UDN ETF, the US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, is in both an intermediate-term and a long-term bear market. The UUP had an upside breakout above the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's.  The 50d sma crossed above the 200d sma, the Golden Cross, on Friday, February 26, 2010.  The UDN had a downside breakdown through the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's.  The 50d sma crossed below the 200d sma on February 22, 2010.

The US Dollar Index is comprised of 6 currencies, which are weighted. The current intermediate-term and long-term signals, the USD trend vs that currency, are noted, after the weighting percentage, below:

EURO 57.6% Bullish, Bullish; trends appears intact for USD

JPY 13.6% Bearish, Bearish; trends appears intact for USD

GBP 11.9% Bullish, Bullish; trends appear intact for USD

CAD 9.1% Bullish, Bearish; USD is consolidating, trends appear to be bearish for USD

SEK 4.2% Bearish, Bullish; trends appear to be intact for USD

CHF 3.6% Bullish, Bullish, USD is consolidating, trends appear to be intact for USD

So, the Euro, JPY, and GBP are weighted a total of 83.1% of the US Dollar Index. Therefore, the USD trends versus Euro and GBP are what is driving the USD bull market. A major rally of the Euro and GBP does not appear imminent.

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S&P 500 and US Dollar: Mid Week Review

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After the 3 days of trading this week, the S&P 500, SPX, at 1105.24, is down 0.35% from the Friday close of 1109.17.  The US Dollar Index, USDX, at 80.80, is up 0.26% from the Friday close of 80.59.  Both have traded sideways mostly.  The S&P 500 is in an intermediate-term bear market and the US Dollar Index is in an intermediate-term bull market.  Both the S&P 500 and US Dollar Index are technically in a long-term bull market simultaneously.  More about this in the analysis below and in the Summary at the end of this post.

S&P 500: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the S&P 500. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma.  This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 10, and only the second one since the March 2009 bottom. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close Wednesday of 1105.24, the highest yellow horizontal line, is in the recent resistance area from sideways channel trading in November and December 2009.  SPX entered this resistance area last week and has stayed in this range since.  The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome last week. Regaining the 1130+ price area after the three huge down days of January 20, 21, and 22, 2010 is next, but could be a tough slog.

I have included two yellow uptrend lines.  The higher uptrend line, a faster rate of price ascent, is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 1073.87. I am using this as a benchmark to monitor SPX price performance.  The SPX had broken down through this trendline on Tuesday, but regained the trendline on Wednesday, a bullish price signal. Whether the SPX can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The second, lower yellow uptrend line, a slightly slower rate of price ascent, is a more traditional trendline.  This trendline is from the March 9. 2009 closing low of 676.53 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 1056.74.  The February 8 closing low has been the bottom of this pullback to date.  The SPX has remained above this trendline since bouncing up above on February 9.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma breaking down through the 50d on February 10 and now the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 23.  The SPX did briefly regain the 50d sma, but now has dropped below this week, a bearish sign.  The SPX did regain the 100d sma on February 17, but has been testing this level this week.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist and the encouraging bull signals of Friday have been reversed, which results in an overall bearish tone.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The SPX is well above this 1049.98 signal with a close Wednesday of 1105.24, which is the highest yellow horizontal line.  The middle yellow horizontal line is the benchmark 1100.00 price.

Conclusion

The SPX had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month through last week, but has pulled back some this week.  The bounce upwards needs to continue to generate higher prices that will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish.  The encouraging bullish signals through last week are gone and a bearish tone prevails.  The long-term trend is still bullish.

US Dollar: Intermediate-Term Bull Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bull market for the US Dollar. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma and has been since mid-December 2009. This is the first such bull market since from early February 2009 through early April 2009. This is also the first bull market since the March 2009 highs and subsequent decline in a bear market.

The close Wednesday of 80.80, the highest yellow horizontal line, maintains the price above the sideways trading of February 5-18.  The current price is in the upper resistance area of sideways channel trading in May, June, and July 2009. Penetrating through this resistance would be a a major upside breakout.

I have included two yellow uptrend lines. The higher uptrend line, a faster rate of price ascent, is from the January 14, 2010 closing low of 76.76 up through the February 16, 2010 closing low of 79.62.  The USD has pinned the trendline this week but stayed above it.  Whether the USD can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine how strong this bull market is.

The second, lower yellow uptrend line, a slightly slower rate of price ascent, is a more traditional trendline. This trendline is from the November 27. 2009 closing low of 74.27 up through the January 14, 2010 closing low of 76.76.  The USD has easily remained above this trendline since bouncing up above on January 19.

The 25d sma is ascending steeply, as is the 50d sma, for the first time since February and March 2009. The 100d sma is also ascending, and the 200d sma rate of descent is slowing.  The 50d sma crossed above the 100d sma on January 22, 2010, signalling price strength. The 50d sma now has crossed above the 200d sma, the Golden Cross, on February 18. Both are very bullish signals. The US Dollar gained and held the benchmark 80 price, the middle yellow horizontal line, for 6 days now.. Overall, these are indications the price strength.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The US Dollar is well above this 79.00 signal with a close Wednesday of 80.80, which is the highest horizontal yellow line. The middle yellow horizontal line is the benchmark 80.00 price.

A very long-term, well known downtrend line, not shown on this chart, from the January 2002 close of 120.22 down through the February 2009 close of 88.06, is still significantly above the USD current price, at approximately 83.50+.

Conclusion

The US Dollar has had a remarkable rally from the lows of late November and early December 2009. All the indicators reviewed above are positive for a continuing bull run.  The intermediate-term trend is still bullish. The long-term trend is still bullish.  See comments below in the Summary.

Summary

The US Dollar is bullish and breaking upside though resistance.  The S&P 500, SPX, rebounded from a pullback, but has now languished in recent resistance. Through last week, the inverse correlation of the USD and SPX has been negated to some extent.  This week the negative correlation  has existed.   I think as long as there is downward pressure on the Euro and the GBK, and perhaps the Yen, the US Dollar can rise along with the SPX. Ultimately, the inverse correlation will reassert itself,  but this could be some time ahead.

The EUR/USD signals are both intermediate-term and long-term bear markets.  The GBP/USD signals are both intermediate-term and long-term bear markets.  Conversely, the USD/JPY is in both an intermediate-term and long-term bear market, but the USD has been rallying against the JPY since February 8.  Any strengthening of the JPY would  mitigate the US Dollar Index bull run to some extent.

Accordingly, the related signals for the US Dollar Index ETFs reflect the overall trend.  The UUP ETF, the US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, is both intermediate-term and long-term bull market.  The UDN ETF, the US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, is both intermediate-term and long-term bear market.  The UUP had an upside breakout above the 200d sma and the UDN had a downside breakdown through the 200d sma.

The US Dollar Index is comprised of 6 currencies, which are weighted.  The current intermediate-term and long-term signals, the USD trend vs that currency, are noted, after the weighting percentage.

EURO 57.6% Bullish, Bullish; trends appears intact for USD

JPY 13.6% Bearish, Bearish; trends are reversing for USD

GBP 11.9% Bullish, Bullish; trends appear intact for USD

CAD 9.1% Bullish, Bearish; trends appear to be bearish for USD

SEK 4.2% Bearish, Bullish; trends appear to be intact for USD

CHF 3.6% Bullish, Bullish, trends appear to be intact for USD
So, the Euro, JPY, and GBP are weighted a total of 83.1% of the US Dollar Index.  Therefore, the USD trends versus Euro and GBP are what is driving the USD bull market.  A major rally of the Euro and GBP does not appear imminent.

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Major Technology Stocks Review

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I reviewed the technology ETFs XLK, a general technology ETF, and SMH, the semiconductors ETF, plus Apple and Google in my last post, on Monday.  In a previous post on Saturday, I reviewed QQQQ, the NAS 100, which is technology weighted.  Now I will review the DJIA 30 technology stocks: Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, and Microsoft.  A summary is at the end of this post.

Cisco

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since February 8.  That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. CSCO did regain, for a second time, the 50d sma and 100d sma on February 11, which was a bullish sign.  However, the 50d sma was tested in the last session.  The current pullback has created price damage that is not being repaired very quickly.

The close on Tuesday of 24.05 is lower than the October and December 2009 highs, which is recent resistance. This resistance is the next obstacle for CSCO, before there can be any thought of regaining the higher January 2010 highs of 24.50+.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 13.62 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 22.47. CSCO bounced up above this trendline and has maintained the gain.  The uptrend line has been held for 16 days, a somewhat bullish price signal even though sideways trading has existed for a few days now.  Whether CSCO can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend.  The 50d and 100d sma's are nearly flat, ascending just slightly.  The 200d sma continues to ascend. The 25d  sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's is the problem.  CSCO has regained the 100d sma but is struggling somewhat with the 50d sma, as noted.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. CSCO is above this 22.29 signal with a close on Tuesday of 24.05, which is the middle horizontal yellow line.  The highest horizontal yellow line is the benchmark 25.00 price.

Conclusion

Using the intermediate-term 25d/50d sma indicator, CSCO was in a bull market from late March 2009, with a brief neutral signal in mid-July, through late November 2009.  Since then, the signal has been alternating betwen long and short with no clear trend.

CSCO rallied off the January 29 closing low of 22.47 and is now back to the January 21 price area.  The December 2009 highs, as recent resistance, were overcome once, only to be given back this week.  Now this resistance plus the October 2009 resistance must be overcome.  CSCO has been trading in a range of about 22.50 to 24.50 since September 10, 2009, exclusive of the January highs.

Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. CSCO is generating mixed signals and struggling with the 50d sma. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Hewlett-Packard

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since February 5. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. HPQ has not been able to regain and hold the 50d sma, which would be a bullish sign.  An attempt to regain the 50d sma occurred, and failed, in the last session. The current pullback has created price damage that is not being repaired very quickly.

The close on Tuesday of 50.12 is lower than the November 2009 highs, which is recent resistance. This resistance is the next obstacle for HPQ, before there can be any thought of regaining the higher December 2009 and January 2010 highs of 52.00+.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 25.53 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 47.03. HPQ bounced up above this trendline and has maintained the gain. The uptrend line has been held for 12 days, a somewhat bullish price signal even though sideways trading has existed for a few days now. Whether HPQ can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend. The 50d sma has leveled off and the 100d sma is barely ascending. The 200d sma continues to ascend. The 25d sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's is the problem. HPQ has regained the 100d sma but is struggling to regain and hold the 50d sma, as noted. Overall, indications of price weakness persist.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. HPQ is well above this 46.08 signal with a close on Tuesday of 50.12, which is the highest horizontal yellow line. The middle horizontal yellow line is the benchmark 50.00 price.

Conclusion

Using the intermediate-term 25d/50d sma indicator, HPQ was in full bull market mode from mid April 2009 through February 4, 2010!  HPQ regaining the prior bull market rate of price ascent will be difficult, but the long-term price prospects appear very good.

HPQ rallied off the February 4 closing low of 47.03 and is now back to the January 22 price area. The November 2009 highs, as recent resistance, have not been overcome since this pullback.  Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength.  HPQ is generating mixed signals and struggling to gain and hold the 50d sma. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish.  The long-term trend is still bullish.

IBM

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since February 5. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. IBM has not been able to regain 50d sma, which is a bearish sign. The 50d sma was pinned twice last week.  The current pullback has created price damage that is not being repaired very quickly.

The close on Tuesday of 126.46 is lower than the October, November, and mid December 2009 highs, which is recent resistance. This resistance is the next obstacle for IBM, before there can be any thought of regaining the higher late December 2009 and mid January 2010 highs of 131.00+.

The uptrend line in yellow is rather interesting; it is from the November 20, 2008 closing low of 71.74 up through the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 83.48.  This pullback has tested this uptrend line more than the July 2009 pullback.  IBM pinned this trendline on February 12 and is comfortably above. The uptrend line has been held for 6 days, a somewhat bullish price signal even though sideways trading has existed for a few days now. Whether IBM can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend. The 50d sma has leveled off but is about to begin descending.  The 100d sma is barely ascending. The 200d sma continues to ascend. The 25d sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's is the problem. IBM has regained the 100d sma last week but pinned it Tuesday.  The 50d sma has not been regained during this pullback.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. IBM is well above this 119.63 signal with a close on Tuesday of 126.46, which is the highest horizontal yellow line. The middle horizontal yellow line is the benchmark 125.00 price.

Conclusion

Using the intermediate-term 25d/50d sma indicator, IBM was in a bull market from late March 2009, with a brief close test in mid-July, through February 4,  2010!  IBM regaining the prior bull market rate of price ascent will be difficult, but the long-term price prospects appear very good.

IBM rallied off the February 8 closing low of 121.88 and is now back to the January 22 price area. Recent resistance, as noted above, has not been overcome since this pullback. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. IBM is generating mixed signals and struggling to regain the 50d sma. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Intel

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since February 17. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. INTC has been able to regain the 50d and 100d sma's, which is a bullish sign.  The current pullback has created some price damage that still needs to be repaired.

The close on Tuesday of 20.39 is above or near the September,  November, and early December 2009 highs, which is recent resistance. This resistance is the next obstacle for INTC, before there can be any thought of regaining the higher mid October 2009 and mid January 2010 highs of 21.00+.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the February 23, 2009 closing low of 12.08 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 19.02.  The uptrend line has been held comfortably since, a somewhat bullish price signal even though sideways trading has existed for a few days now. Whether INTC can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend. The 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma is barely ascending. The 200d sma continues to ascend. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma but is still above the 100d sma, which is positive.  INTC regained the 50d and 100d sma's last week.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signs are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. INTC is above this 19.08 signal with a close on Tuesday of 20.39, which is the highest horizontal yellow line. The middle horizontal yellow line is the benchmark 20.00 price.

Conclusion

Using the intermediate-term 25d/50d sma indicator, INTC was in a bull market from late March 2009, with a brief close test in mid-July, through mid November 2009.  Since then, the signal has been alternating between long and short with no clear trend.

INTC rallied off the February 8 closing low of 19.02 and is now back to the January 22 price area. Recent resistance, as noted above, has not been overcome since this pullback. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. INTC is generating mixed signals, but some bullish indicators are encouraging.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Microsoft

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since February 4. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. MSFT has not been able to regain the 50d sma and only temporarily gained, then lost, the 100d sma.  The current pullback has created some price damage that still needs to be repaired.

The close on Tuesday of 28.33 is below the October through February highs, which are recent resistance, sheesh.  All of this resistance are the next obstacles for MSFT, before there can be any thought of regaining the higher late December 2009 and mid January 2010 highs of 31.00+.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 15.15 up through the February 8, 2010 closing low of 27.72.  The uptrend line has been tested several times subsequently and was pinned yesterday.  Whether MSFT can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d and 50d sma's continue to descend.  The 100d and 200d sma's continue to ascend. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma and now the 100d sma as of yesterday, which is a bearish sign.  The 25d sma breaking down through the 50d sma and now the 100d sma is the problem.  Overall, indications of price weakness persist.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. MSFT is above this 26.68 signal with a close on Tuesday of 28.33, which is the middle horizontal yellow line. The highest horizontal yellow line is the benchmark 30.00 price.

Conclusion

Using the intermediate-term 25d/50d sma indicator, MSFT was in a bull market from mid April 2009, with a brief close test in mid August, through February 3, 2010!  MSFT regaining the prior bull market rate of price ascent will be difficult, with much resistance above.

MSFT rallied off the February 8 closing low of 27.72 and is now back to the January 29 price area. Recent resistance, as noted above, has not been overcome since this pullback. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. All the indicators reviewed above are bearish.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Summary

All of these major technology companies are international giants and leading edge endeavors.  Both their financial position and financial performance are strong.  All have significant foreign sales which are affected by the strength or weakness of the US Dollar.  Therefore, the bull market and strength of the US Dollar recently is adversely impacting the financial statements of these companies due to the negative effect of currency conversions.  When the US Dollar tops out and the price begins to descend these stocks will bounce up accordingly.

None of these  5 stocks are in full bull mode, of course.  All have had a  pullback.  All are in an intermediate-term bear market and long-term bull market.  A quick review of the price status:

CSCO Above 50d sma, but pinned it yesterday.
HPQ Broke down through 50d sma yesterday; still above benchmark 50.00
IBM Below 50d sma, but pinned 100d sma yesterday
INTC Above 50d sma
MSFT Below 50d sma, broke down through 100d sma yesterday, just above uptrend line

Reviewed in previous posts (update):

QQQQ Broke down through 50d sma Monday; just above 100d sma
XLK Below 50d sma; broke down  through 100d sma Monday
SMH Below 50d sma; broke down through 100d sma yesterday
AAPL Below 50d sma; broke down through 100d sma yesterday
GOOG Trading sideways below 50d and 100d sma's

INTC is the strongest, being above the 50d sma.  CSCO is also above the 50d sma, but pinned it yesterday.

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Technology Sector Review

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I mostly follow the technology sector as that is what my interest is.  Therefore, I'm going to review a few daily charts, to see what the impact of the recent equities pullback has been.  In my previous post, I reviewed the QQQQ, the NAS 100 ETF, which is technology weighted, along with SPY, DIA, and IWM.  I concluded that QQQQ is in an intermediate-term bear market, with encouraging bullish signals, and in a long-term bull market. 

Late this week in a post, I reviewed the XLK, the S&P Technology SPDR ETF.  I will update below, but the conclusion is the same as QQQQ, an intermediate-term bear market, with encouraging bullish signals, and a long-term bull market.

There are many more technology ETFs and stocks, of course, and hopefully I can review those in an additional or supplemental post in the future, including the IYW Technology ETF.  Long-term I am bullish personally on all the ETFs and stocks listed below.  Obviously the future is technology, I do my best to keep up with all the latest news and research.  I microblog some technology information on Twitter at @OspreyFlyer.  A summary is at the end of this post.

XLK: Technology ETF

The XLK is a general technology ETF designed to represent the technology sector of the S&P 500, which is approximately 22% of the  S&P 500.  See the XLK Technology portfolio holdings here.  The 50 day average volume is 12+ million; so this is a very liquid ETF.

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the XLK. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma.  This is the first such bear market signal since the March 2009 bottom, occurring on February 5.   What a bull run! This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The XLK did regain the 100d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close on Friday of 21.82 is in the lower range of the sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009, which is recent resitance.  The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome during the week.  XLK regaining the 23.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, but recent resistance must be overcome first.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 13.22 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 20.96.  The XLK had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 6 days, a bullish price signal.  Whether the XLK can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d and 50d sma's continue to descend.  The 100d sma has begun to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is beginning to increase. Most bothersome is the 25d sma breaking down through the 100d sma. XLK did regain the 100d sma on Thursday, as noted. Overall, some strong indications of price weakness persist, and a price breakout above the 50d sma is necessary for an encouraging bullish signal.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLK is above this 20.62 signal with a close on Friday of 21.82, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The XLK has now had a decent rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 price area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength.  A breakout above the 50d sma would be encouraging.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish.  The long-term trend is still bullish.

SMH: Semiconductors ETF

The SMH is a technology ETF designed to represent companies that develop, manufacture, and market integrated circuitry and other products known as semiconductors.  Of course, semiconductors are integral to the technology sector and to the global economy.  Semiconductors demand can be seen as a global economic indicator.  See the SMH Semiconductors portfolio holdings here. This ETF is heavily weighted to INTC, TXN, & AMAT, which comprise approximately 56% of the total portfolio.  The 50 day average volume is 16+ million; so this is a very liquid ETF.

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the SMH. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the second such bear market signal since the March 2009 bottom, occurring on February 5.  This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The SMH did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday and 50d sma on Friday, which are bullish signs. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close on Friday of 26.84 is in the lower range of the sideways channel trading in December 2009, which is recent resitance. The resistance from the October 2009 highs has not been overcome yet.  SMH regaining the 28.00+ price area, the 2010 highs, would be next, but recent resistance must be overcome first.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 15.91 up through the January 22, 2010 closing low of 25.67. The SMH had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the SMH can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled  off. The 100d sma has begun to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent has held steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma breaking down through the 100d sma. SMH did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday and the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The SMH is above this 24.93 signal with a close on Friday of 26.84, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The SMH has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 price area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Apple

The mighty Apple, technology innovator with a cult following for its products and stock.  A buy/long signal was generated in mid February 2009 and the race was on - until a sell/short signal just before Christmas 2009. It was a amazing bull run!  Another breakout, and buy/long signal, occurred a couple of weeks later, which lasted until this last Tuesday.  Disturbingly, AAPL regained, and then lost, the 50d sma this last week.

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market since Tuesday for the AAPL. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma.  This reveals the depth of the current pullback. AAPL did regain the 100d sma on February 11, which was a bullish sign, but is now struggling with the 50d sma, as noted.  The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close on Friday of 201.67 is lower than the October and November 2009 highs, which is recent resistance.  This resistance is the next obstacle for AAPL, before there can be any thought of regaining the 210.00+ price area and 2010 highs.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 83.11 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 192.06.  AAPL battled this trendline before breaking out above on the tenth day!  The trendline has been held for 6 days, a somewhat bullish price signal even though sideways trading the last 4 days. Whether AAPL can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma is now ascending. The 100d and 200d sma's continue to ascend. The 25d sma breaking down through the 50d sma is the problem. AAPL has regained the 100d sma but is struggling with the 50d sma, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this 179.65 signal with a close on Friday of 201.67, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: AAPL has now had a decent rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 price area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. AAPL is generating mixed signals and struggling with t he 50d sma.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Google

Googzilla, the leading edge technology giant becoming involved in so many ventures, including non-technology.  A buy/long signal was generated on April 13, 2009 and a bull run was on - until a sell/short signal on February 1, 2010.

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market all of this month for GOOG.  That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma.  GOOG has not regained the 50d and 100d sma's.  This reveals the depth of the current pullback.  The 25d sma descending through both the 50d & 100d sma's is bothersome.  The recent pullback created price damage that has not been repaired through sustained higher prices.

GOOG is well below the January 4, 2010 high of $626.75.  The close on Friday of 540.76 is lower than the October 2009 highs, which is recent resistance. This resistance is the next obstacle for GOOG, before there can be any thought of regaining the 600.00+ price area and 2010 highs.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 market closing low of 290.89 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 526.78. GOOG has managed to stay right on or above this trendline for 11 days now!  The trendline has been held for these 11 days, a somewhat bullish price signal even though trading sideways since January 25. Whether GOOG can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d and 50d sma's continue to descend.  The 100d and 200d sma's continue to ascend, but the rate of ascent is decreasing. The 25d sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's is the problem. GOOG has not been able to regain the 50d and 100d sma's. Overall, price weakness persists as the price is churning sideways near the bottom of this pullback.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. GOOG is above this 512.05 signal with a close on Friday of 540.76, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: GOOG has not significantly rallied off the lows of earlier this month.  Higher prices are necessary to generate a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. Whether GOOG will rally and regain the 50d and 100d sma's or churn sideways and the 50d and 100d sma's come to the price, is the bothersome question.  The intermediate-term trend is still bearish.  The long-term trend is still bullish.

Summary

XLK, a general technology ETF, has barely regained the 100d sma and has yet to approach the descending 50d sma.  SMH, the semiconductors ETF, has regained the 100d sma and now just barely regained the 50d sma.  The technology sector has experienced a significant price pullback in 2010.  Both are in an intermediate-term bear market and long-term bull market, according to the signals reviewed.

AAPL has regained the 100d sma but is struggling with the 50d sma.  GOOG has yet to regain the 50d and 100d sma's.  AAPL and GOOG are bellweather technology stocks, whose price performance is bothersome and frustrating.  Both are in an intermediate-term bear market and long-term bull market, according to the signals reviewed.

Technology 4Q 2009 earnings reports have been good and the 2010 outlook and guidance is very positive.  At some point in 2010, I think the technology sector will continue the bull run that began from the March 2009 market lows and even earlier.

Other technology stocks and ETFs  I hope to review soon are the major stocks CSCO, HPQ, IBM, INTC, MSFT plus CRM, VMW, CY, and hybrid IMAX plus the IYW and other related ETFs.

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USA Stock Indexes: Intermediate-Term View

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I have reviewed the S&P 500, and the related 9 SPDR sectors, in previous posts.  I'm going to review all the major stock indexes to compare them and see what the status of the prices are for the week ended Friday, February 19, 2010.  Instead of the index values, I will review them via the ETFs: SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM, which represent the S&P 500, DJIA 30, NAS 100, and Russell 2000.  I have already reviewed the S&P 500, SPX, for the current week ended, and posted yesterday, so the SPY review will basically be a repeat.  At the end of this post, I will have a summary to review the comparative price strengths and weaknesses of each of these 4 equity index ETFs.

SPY: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the SPY, S&P 500, SPX, ETF.  That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 9, and only the second such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback.  The SPY did regain the 50d sma on Friday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close Friday of 111.14 is in the upper resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009.  The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome this week. SPY regaining the 113.00+ price area after the three huge down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, but could be a tough slog.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 68.11 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 107.39. The SPY had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the SPY can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma.  SPY did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The SPY is well above this 105.18 signal with a close on Friday of 111.14, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The SPY has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

DIA: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the DIA, the DJIA 30 ETF. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 4, and only the second such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The DIA did regain the 50d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close Friday of 103.99 is in the middle of the resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome last week. DIA regaining the 106.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, but could be a tough slog.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 65.44 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 100.55. The DIA had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the DIA can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. DIA did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The DIA is well above this 98.26 signal with a close on Friday of 103.99, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The DIA has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

QQQQ: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the QQQQ, the NAS 100 ETF, which is technology weighted. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since the March 2009 bottom, occurring on February 10.  What a bull run!  This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The QQQQ did regain the 50d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices. 

The close Friday of 44.83 is above the resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome on Tuesday.  QQQQ regaining the 46.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, and no major recent resistance until then.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 25.74 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 42.79. The QQQQ had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 6 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the QQQQ can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has began to ascend. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. QQQQ did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The QQQQ is well above this 41.51 signal with a close on Friday of 44.83, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The QQQQ has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

IWM: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact

The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF.  That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the second such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 10, and the third such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The IWM did regain the 50d sma on Tuesday, which is a bullish signal, and also earlier than the other indexes reviewed above.  The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.

The close Friday of 63.06 is above significant resistance.  The double top resistance from the September and October 2009 highs was overcome on Thursday. IWM regaining the 64.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is the next bullish gain.

The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 34.39 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 60.11. The IWM had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the IWM can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.

The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has began to ascend. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. IWM did regain the 100d sma a week ago Friday, the earliest of the above indexes reviewed.  The 50d sma was regained on Friday., as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.

The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The IWM is well above this 58.36 signal with a close on Friday of 63.06, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.

Conclusion: The IWM has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 21 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.

Summary

Current Percentage Loss from 2010 Closing High

IWM has the least amount of loss since the January 19 highs and QQQQ the most.

IWM: Feb 19 now $63.06 less Jan 19 high $64.85 = ($1.79) / $64.85 = (2.76%)

DIA: Feb 19 now $103.99 less Jan 19 high $107.17 = ($3.18) / $107.17 = (2.97%)
SPY: Feb 19 now $111.14 less Jan 19 high $115.06 = ($3.92) / $115.06 = (3.41%)
QQQQ: Feb 19 now $44.83 less Jan 19 high $46.59 = ($1.76) / $46.59 = (3.78%)

Current Percentage Gain from 2010 Closing Low

IWM has gained the most from the February lows and DIA the least.

IWM: Feb 19 now $63.06 less Feb 8 low $58.68 = $4.38 / $58.68 = 7.46%

QQQQ: Feb 19 now $44.83 less Feb 4 low $42.62 = $2.21 / $42.62 = 5.19%

SPY: Feb 19 now $111.14 less Feb 8 low $105.89 = $5.25 / $105.89 = 4.96%

DIA: Feb 19 now $103.99 less Feb 8 low $99.22 = $4.77 / $99.22 = 4.81%

By these measures, IWM is clearly the strongest of the indexes.  This is interesting because IWM broke down from mid-November through mid-December and lagged SPY, DIA, and QQQQ in price performance.

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