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In a previous post, I looked at the intermediate-term view of the S&P 500 and the US Dollar on the daily chart. These signals continue to indicate an intermediate-term bear market for the S&P 500 and an intermediate-term bull market for the US Dollar. A slower, long-term signal indicates a bull market for both the S&P 500 and US Dollar. Now I will review the 9 related S&P sectors, the Select SPDRs, on the daily charts, from an intermediate-term view.
XLB Materials Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The 25d sma is descending plus the 50d sma is descending. The 100d sma has flattened out. The 200d sma rate of ascent is decreasing. Most bothersome is the XLB breaking down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's plus the 25d sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's. All of these are indications of price weakness. The XLB has regained the 100d sma this week, after breaking down through earlier. The XLB pinned the 200d sma on February 5 but has bounced above.
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market. This is the first such signal since July 2009 and only the second one since the March 2009 bottom. The recent pullback created price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The 25d sma is descending plus the 50d sma is descending. The 100d sma has flattened out. The 200d sma rate of ascent is decreasing. Most bothersome is the XLB breaking down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's plus the 25d sma breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's. All of these are indications of price weakness. The XLB has regained the 100d sma this week, after breaking down through earlier. The XLB pinned the 200d sma on February 5 but has bounced above.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLB is well above this 30.33 signal with a close today of 32.11, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The close today of 32.11 is approaching the September and October 2009 highs plus the sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. These may act as resistance.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLE is well above this 54.62 signal with a close today of 57.14, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The close today of 57.14 has reached the resistance represented by the sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009 plus the recent high earlier this month.
Conclusion: The XLE has had a decent rally off the lows of earlier this month. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
The 25d sma is descending and the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma rate of ascent has decreased. The 200d sma rate of ascent is also decreasing. The XLI broke down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's but has now regained all 3. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma.
Conclusion: The XLI did not pullback as much as some other sectors and never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's.gh ongoing price strength. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
The 25d sma is declining plus the 50d sma is declining for the first time since March 2009. The 100d sma is flattening out. The 200d sma rate of ascent is decreasing. Most bothersome is the XLK breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's. The XLK has just regained the 100d sma, however. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma and is approaching 100d sma. All of these are indications of price weakness. Blah...
Conclusion: The XLB has had a decent rally off the lows of earlier this month. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
XLE Energy Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicated a bear market beginning on February 12. The price action of the XLE has been a wild ride from the March 2009 bottom. The recent pullback created price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The 25d sma is descending but the 50d sma is beginning to ascend slightly. The 100d sma is also ascending slightly. The 200d sma continues to ascend. The XLE did break down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's plus the 25d sma broke down through the 50d and 100d sma's. All of these are indications of price weakness. The XLE has regained the 50d and 100d sma's this week, after breaking down through earlier. The XLE pinned the 200d sma on February 5 but has bounced above.
XLF Financial Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates a bear market beginning February 12. The price peaked on October 14, 2009 and has a downward trend. The 200d sma was tested multiple times earlier this month.
The XLF first broke through and then regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's in December 2009. On January 21 this breakdown occurred again. The 50d and 100d sma's have not been regained yet.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLF is barely above this 14.11 signal with a close today of 14.38, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The current price has reached what can be viewed as a channel trading range that goes all the way back to August 5, 2009. This may well act as substantial resistance.
Conclusion: I would use additional technical analysis in any attempt to trade XLF. I have no plans to - XLF is a confused and messy price action. I don't like it, lol. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish, but barely.
XLI Industrial Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicates a bear market. This is the first such signal since July 2009 and only the second one since the March 2009 bottom. The price has held up relatively better than some other sectors during the recent pullback.
The 25d sma is descending and the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma rate of ascent has decreased. The 200d sma rate of ascent is also decreasing. The XLI broke down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's but has now regained all 3. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLF is above this 26.41 signal with a close today of 28.72, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The current price has broke through resistance and the previous highs of January 2010 are within reach.
Conclusion: The XLI did not pullback as much as some other sectors and never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's.gh ongoing price strength. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
XLK Technology Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
I'm very disappointed with XLK, lol. I follow technology and the related stocks. I microblog tech stock news on Twitter at @OspreyFlyer. I had high hopes for technology, including XLK, going into 2010. The fundamentals are sound, earnings are good, guidance is very good, then the price breaks down in technology, sheesh.
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicates a bear market since February 5. This is the first such signal since late March and early April 2009. It's been quite a bull run! The recent pullback created price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicates a bear market since February 5. This is the first such signal since late March and early April 2009. It's been quite a bull run! The recent pullback created price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The 25d sma is declining plus the 50d sma is declining for the first time since March 2009. The 100d sma is flattening out. The 200d sma rate of ascent is decreasing. Most bothersome is the XLK breaking down through the 50d and 100d sma's. The XLK has just regained the 100d sma, however. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d sma and is approaching 100d sma. All of these are indications of price weakness. Blah...
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLK is above this 20.63 signal with a close today of 21.88, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The current price has reached the channel trading range of November and December 2009. This may act as resistance.
The 25d sma is now ascending and the 50d sma has flattened out. The 100d sma is still ascending. The 200d sma rate of ascent is still good. The XLP did break down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's, though the 200d sma was never threatened. Now all sma's have been regained and then some. The 25d sma broke down through the 50d sma but not the 100d sma. The 25d sma is now ascending towards the 100d sma.
XLU is a bearish mess, but has bounced back some. Both the 25d and 50d sma's are descending. The 100d sma descended but has leveled off. The 200d sma rate of ascent is slowing. Most bothersome is the XLU breaking down through the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma has been tested this week. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d and 100d sma's. All of these are indications of price weakness and is the weakest of these sectors reviewed.
Both the 25d and 50d sma's have leveled off. The 100d and 200d sma's are ascending and the rate of ascent is steady. The XLV broke down though the 25d and 50d sma's plus tested the 100d sma. Now the 50d sma has been regained and the XLV is between the 25d and 50d sma's. There are some indications of price weakness, but this is the strongest of the sectors reviewed.
XLB Materials: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLE Energy: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLF Financials: Bearish, Bullish; no opinion, don't like the price action
XLI Industrials: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
XLK Technology: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLP Consumer Staples: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
XLU Utilities: Bearish, Bearish, weakest sector, considerable price damage, needs to rally
XLV Health Care: Bullish, Bullish, strongest sector, could be solid buy signal next week
XLY Consumer Discretionary: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
(Reviewed in previous post):
SPX S&P 500: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
Conclusion: The XLK did pull back but never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 50d, and 100d sma's, yet the 25d sma is below. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
XLP Consumer Staples Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicates a bear market that is improving. This is the first such signal since April 2009. It's been a good bull run until this pullback. The price has held up better than the other sectors during the recent pullback.
The 25d sma is now ascending and the 50d sma has flattened out. The 100d sma is still ascending. The 200d sma rate of ascent is still good. The XLP did break down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's, though the 200d sma was never threatened. Now all sma's have been regained and then some. The 25d sma broke down through the 50d sma but not the 100d sma. The 25d sma is now ascending towards the 100d sma.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLP is well above this 25.64 signal with a close today of 27.06, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The current price has broke through resistance and the previous highs of January 2010 are very close.
Conclusion: The XLP did not pullback as much as some other sectors and never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
XLU Utilities Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing strong bear market. This signal occurred on Feburary 2. The recent pullback created price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
XLU is a bearish mess, but has bounced back some. Both the 25d and 50d sma's are descending. The 100d sma descended but has leveled off. The 200d sma rate of ascent is slowing. Most bothersome is the XLU breaking down through the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma has been tested this week. The 25d sma has broken down through the 50d and 100d sma's. All of these are indications of price weakness and is the weakest of these sectors reviewed.
The highest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLU is below this 29.44 signal with a close today of 29.35, which is the lower horizontal yellow line. Accordingly, this signals a long-term bear market, in addition to an intermediate-term bear market.
Conclusion: The XLU price has rebounded from lows of earlier this month, but still is dismal. The current price has much history back through July 2009 and also during the period of October 2008 through February 2009. This appears to be major resistance. Considerable price damage, and therefore technical damage, has occurred. Both the intermediate-term and long-term signals are bearish.
XLV Health Care Sector: Intermediate-Term Bull Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bull market. There has been no bear/sell/short signal since the March 2009 bottom, although it was tenuous in late October and early November 2009. The recent pullback created some price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices, but so far the buy signal remains intact, barely.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLV is well above this 29.53 signal with a close today of 31.53, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. The current price is at the consolidation trading range of December 2009 and January 2010, which may act as resistance.
Conclusion: An intermediate-term and long-term bull market exists for XLV. The price has held up relatively well during the current equity market pullback.
XLY Consumer Discretionary Sector: Intermediate-Term Bear Market
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicates a neutral market. This is the first such signal since July 2009 and only the second one since the March 2009 bottom. The recent pullback created some price damage that has yet to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The 25d sma has leveled off and the 50d sma is ascending. The 100d and 200d sma's are ascending. The XLY broke down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's but has now regained them all. The 25d sma broke down through the 50d sma and but recovery looks promising.
The 25d sma has leveled off and the 50d sma is ascending. The 100d and 200d sma's are ascending. The XLY broke down through the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's but has now regained them all. The 25d sma broke down through the 50d sma and but recovery looks promising.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The XLY is well above this 27.47 signal with a close today of 30.15, which is the higher horizontal yellow line. Even though the current price is at the consolidation trading range of December 2009 and January 2010, which may act as resistance, XLY is also very close to the January 2010 highs.
Conclusion: The XLY did not pullback as much as some other sectors and never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
Conclusion: The XLY did not pullback as much as some other sectors and never tested the 200d sma. The current price has regained the 25d, 50d, and 100d sma's. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The long-term trend is still bullish.
Sector Summary: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Status
XLB Materials: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLE Energy: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLF Financials: Bearish, Bullish; no opinion, don't like the price action
XLI Industrials: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
XLK Technology: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
XLP Consumer Staples: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
XLU Utilities: Bearish, Bearish, weakest sector, considerable price damage, needs to rally
XLV Health Care: Bullish, Bullish, strongest sector, could be solid buy signal next week
XLY Consumer Discretionary: Bearish, Bullish, waiting for buy signal, could be soon
(Reviewed in previous post):
SPX S&P 500: Bearish, Bullish, needs to rally some more and hold price
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