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I have reviewed the S&P 500, and the related 9 SPDR sectors, in previous posts. I'm going to review all the major stock indexes to compare them and see what the status of the prices are for the week ended Friday, February 19, 2010. Instead of the index values, I will review them via the ETFs: SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM, which represent the S&P 500, DJIA 30, NAS 100, and Russell 2000. I have already reviewed the S&P 500, SPX, for the current week ended, and posted yesterday, so the SPY review will basically be a repeat. At the end of this post, I will have a summary to review the comparative price strengths and weaknesses of each of these 4 equity index ETFs.
SPY: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the SPY, S&P 500, SPX, ETF. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 9, and only the second such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The SPY did regain the 50d sma on Friday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The close Friday of 111.14 is in the upper resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome this week. SPY regaining the 113.00+ price area after the three huge down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, but could be a tough slog.
The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 68.11 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 107.39. The SPY had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the SPY can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.
The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. SPY did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The SPY is well above this 105.18 signal with a close on Friday of 111.14, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.
Conclusion: The SPY has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.
DIA: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the DIA, the DJIA 30 ETF. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 4, and only the second such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The DIA did regain the 50d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the DIA, the DJIA 30 ETF. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 4, and only the second such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The DIA did regain the 50d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The close Friday of 103.99 is in the middle of the resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome last week. DIA regaining the 106.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, but could be a tough slog.
The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 65.44 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 100.55. The DIA had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the DIA can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.
The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has leveled off. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. DIA did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The DIA is well above this 98.26 signal with a close on Friday of 103.99, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.
Conclusion: The DIA has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.
QQQQ: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the QQQQ, the NAS 100 ETF, which is technology weighted. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the first such bear market signal since the March 2009 bottom, occurring on February 10. What a bull run! This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The QQQQ did regain the 50d sma on Thursday, which is a bullish sign. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The close Friday of 44.83 is above the resistance area from sideways channel trading in Novermber & December 2009. The resistance from the October 2009 highs was overcome on Tuesday. QQQQ regaining the 46.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is next, and no major recent resistance until then.
The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 25.74 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 42.79. The QQQQ had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 6 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the QQQQ can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.
The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has began to ascend. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. QQQQ did regain the 100d sma on Tuesday, February 16 and then the 50d sma on Friday, as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The QQQQ is well above this 41.51 signal with a close on Friday of 44.83, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.
Conclusion: The QQQQ has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 22 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.
IWM: Intermediate-Term Bear Market Still Intact
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day & 50 day simple moving averages, still indicates an ongoing bear market for the IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. That is, the 25d sma is less than the 50d sma. This is the second such bear market signal since July 2009, occurring on February 10, and the third such signal since the March 2009 bottom. This reveals the depth of the current pullback. The IWM did regain the 50d sma on Tuesday, which is a bullish signal, and also earlier than the other indexes reviewed above. The recent pullback created price damage that continues to be repaired through sustained higher prices.
The close Friday of 63.06 is above significant resistance. The double top resistance from the September and October 2009 highs was overcome on Thursday. IWM regaining the 64.00+ price area after the three down days of January 20, 21, & 22, 2010 is the next bullish gain.
The uptrend line in yellow is from the March 9, 2009 closing low of 34.39 up through the January 29, 2010 closing low of 60.11. The IWM had broken down through this trendline but regained the trendline and has held it for the last 4 days, a bullish price signal. Whether the IWM can continue above this trendline, this rate of price ascent, will determine whether a bull market signal is generated sooner.
The 25d sma continues to descend but the 50d sma has began to ascend. The 100d sma has began to ascend. The 200d sma rate of ascent is steady. Most bothersome is the 25d sma descending towards the ascending 100d sma. IWM did regain the 100d sma a week ago Friday, the earliest of the above indexes reviewed. The 50d sma was regained on Friday., as noted. Overall, some indications of price weakness persist, but bullish signals continue to mitigate and are encouraging.
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. The IWM is well above this 58.36 signal with a close on Friday of 63.06, which is the higher horizontal yellow line.
Conclusion: The IWM has now had a sustained rally off the lows of earlier this month and is now back to the January 21 area. Holding the current price levels and higher prices will eventually sustain a signal that an intermediate-term bull market has returned through ongoing price strength. The intermediate-term trend is still bearish, but there have been encouraging bullish signals. The long-term trend is still bullish.
Summary
Current Percentage Loss from 2010 Closing High
IWM has the least amount of loss since the January 19 highs and QQQQ the most.
IWM: Feb 19 now $63.06 less Jan 19 high $64.85 = ($1.79) / $64.85 = (2.76%)
DIA: Feb 19 now $103.99 less Jan 19 high $107.17 = ($3.18) / $107.17 = (2.97%)
SPY: Feb 19 now $111.14 less Jan 19 high $115.06 = ($3.92) / $115.06 = (3.41%)
QQQQ: Feb 19 now $44.83 less Jan 19 high $46.59 = ($1.76) / $46.59 = (3.78%)
SPY: Feb 19 now $111.14 less Jan 19 high $115.06 = ($3.92) / $115.06 = (3.41%)
QQQQ: Feb 19 now $44.83 less Jan 19 high $46.59 = ($1.76) / $46.59 = (3.78%)
Current Percentage Gain from 2010 Closing Low
IWM has gained the most from the February lows and DIA the least.
IWM: Feb 19 now $63.06 less Feb 8 low $58.68 = $4.38 / $58.68 = 7.46%
QQQQ: Feb 19 now $44.83 less Feb 4 low $42.62 = $2.21 / $42.62 = 5.19%
SPY: Feb 19 now $111.14 less Feb 8 low $105.89 = $5.25 / $105.89 = 4.96%
DIA: Feb 19 now $103.99 less Feb 8 low $99.22 = $4.77 / $99.22 = 4.81%
By these measures, IWM is clearly the strongest of the indexes. This is interesting because IWM broke down from mid-November through mid-December and lagged SPY, DIA, and QQQQ in price performance.
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