The S&P 500, SPX, closed today at a 2010 high of 1150.51, higher than the previous 2010 highs of 1150.23 on January 19 and 1150.24 on Thursday, March 11. Yet another 2010 new high, barely, lol. Of course, 1150.23 and 1150.24 are considered critical recent resistance. Therefore, the current close of 1150.51 is considered "at resistance" and not an upside breakout yet.
The Big Question Remains: What happens now? An upside breakout or pullback? As I stated before, I believe there will be an upside breakout. This recent resistance may be tested several times, and is being tested, but I think an upside breakout is inevitable and imminent. The Russell 2000 regained and exceed it's 2010 high first, followed by the NASDAQ Composite and then the NASDAQ 100. Now SPX is at this threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lagging behind the SPX. This has been a familiar pattern during this rally from the March 9, 2009 low.
The US Dollar Index bounced up today and regained the benchmark price of 80.00 with a close of 80.24. The Greece sovereign debt crisis has subsided and is perceived as managed, at least for now. USA economic news recently has been slightly encouraging or lukewarm, but nothing too negative. Today, the NAHB Housing Market Index was reported as a dismal 15 for March, but it appears all the negative news to date in the struggling housing industry has been priced in.
I reviewed in detail the S&P 500, SPX, and US Dollar Index, USD, over the weekend. No technical indicators changed today, so I refer you to my previous post for more detailed commentary of the SPX and USD charts. The USD was up +0.43 or +0.54% today to 80.24 and the SPX was up +0.52 or +0.05%, neither of which is of any material consequence. It's the fact the SPX barely reached another 2010 high that is the news.
Below is the daily chart for the S&P 500 (SPX). Commentary is above and in more detail in the weekend post. The highest yellow line on the chart below is today's close. The middle yellow horizontal is the 12-31-09 year end close of 1115.10. The lowest yellow horizontal line is the 10 month exponential moving average of 1068.15, which is a long-term bull/bear market signal.
Below is the daily chart for the US Dollar Index (USD). Commentary is above and in more detail in the weekend post. The highest yellow line on the chart below is the 2010 YTD closing high of 80.93 on February 23. The second highest yellow horizontal is today's, the current close of 80.24. The third highest yellow horizontal line is the benchmark price of 80.00. The lowest yellow horizontal line is the 10 month exponential moving average of 79.21, which is a long-term bull/bear market signal.
One notable ongoing event stands out on the USD chart. The USD is riding the yellow downtrend line and has not been able to close above. This is downtrend line is from the March 9, 2009 high of 89.57 down through the February 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 80.93. USD has been struggling with this trendline since February 23 and has not been able to stay above. The USD is literally riding the underside of this downtrend line!
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